Urban Water Security Assessment: A Downscaled Approach

: (Alternative Format Thesis)

Abstract

Water security is a multidimensional concept, encompassing fundamental elements of human development and well-being. Assessing water security is essential for understanding and improving it, especially in urban settings, where high population density, water cycle alterations and climate change impacts pose significant challenges. Within this context, the heterogeneity of the urban environment adds to the challenges, creating disparities that can evade traditional citywide assessments. This thesis aims to explore how downscaling the assessment of urban water security can offer a more detailed view of the urban environment and facilitate the identification of local challenges with the goal of strengthening water security.

Through a literature review of both academic and grey literature, an in-depth overview of water security was provided exploring what the concept encompasses, how it can be assessed and what actions can take us towards water security improvement. A subsequent systematic review of water security assessment metrics used in urban settings was presented. The results of these reviews highlighted important definitions, scales of application, indicators, and aspects to consider when evaluating urban water security. They lay the groundwork for the development of the urban water security assessment framework proposed in the thesis. Developed to assess water security at different levels in the urban environment, the framework was designed to capture the multifaceted perspectives of the concept and allow investigation of intra-urban water security.

To demonstrate the assessment, the urban water security of the city of Campinas, Brazil was evaluated across citywide and intra-city scales, and quantitative inequality analysis was performed to uncover disparities. The results showed that increasing the granularity of the assessment allows to better visualise the spatial distribution and uncover existing water security inequalities. Enabled by the downscaled assessment, further evaluation of Campinas’ urban water security situation was carried out by means of a spatial correlation analysis. This allowed to identify patterns of spatial distribution in the city for indicators presenting high inequality measure. A second case study of the framework applied to Mexico City was presented. A holistic characterisation of water security within the city was provided by means of the multi-dimensional approach associated with inequality and spatial analysis. Following the assessment, existing strategies, aimed at enhancing water security and mitigating inequality, were discussed.

To integrate the temporal component into the study of water security, a system dynamics model was developed and applied to the evaluation of Campinas, Brazil. The results showed changes in water security aspects in the last decade and possible scenarios for the city. Supporting the downscaled assessment, the model enabled localised simulation and the examination of the impact of local interventions.

Finally, the downscaled assessment approach for urban water security was examined, discussing its potential, challenges, and limitations. This discussion highlighted the opportunities in terms of uncovering urban inequalities, supporting evidence-based policy-making and identification of opportunities for local action, and facilitating a more inclusive development or urban water security. Based on these considerations, the next steps in the development and deployment of the assessment framework were considered, with a focus on exploring the use of the framework in different contexts, expanding spatial analysis, and involving stakeholders to improve both the data gathering phase as well as the potential for generating impact.

Date of Award	11 Dec 2024
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	University of Bath
Supervisor	Jan Hofman (Supervisor), Junjie Shen (Supervisor), Blanca Antizar-Ladislao (Supervisor) & David Butler (Supervisor)