The Impact of Consumer and Product Characteristics on Change in Attribute- Weights over Time and its Implications for New Product Sales Forecasting Using Choice-based Conjoint Analysis

  • Semco Jahanbin

Student thesis: Doctoral ThesisPhD

Abstract

One of the major demand related risks for companies that produce consumer electronics goods is change in consumer preferences over time as reflected in the weights they attach to the attributes of products. This contributes to the difficulty of predicting whether consumers will purchase a new product or not and the accuracy of such forecasts can have significant ramifications for companies’ strategies, profitability and even their chances of survival. Knowledge of attribute-weights and accurate forecasts of new products can give companies better insights during the product development stages, inform go-no-go decisions on whether to launch a developed product and also support decisions on whether a recently launched product should be withdrawn or not due to poor early stage sales. Despite the important implications of change in attribute-weights, no research has investigated the extent to which such changes occur and impact on the accuracy of forecasts of the future market share of these products. Prior to the current research, it was assumed that the weights are constant over time – even when the nature of the attributes was assumed to change.To investigate these concerns choice based conjoint (CBC) was applied to data gathered ina longitudinal survey of consumer choices relating a range of consumer electronic products, where innovation has different rates and the product life cycles are various. This allowed an assessment of the extent to which the weights of attributes of choice-based conjoint models change over a six months period for consumer durable products and the degree to which this variability is dependent on the nature of the product. It demonstrates that the change in weights is greater for products that have high technological complexity and shorter lifecycles and also links the changeability of weights to the characteristics of potential consumers. The results of thesis demonstrate that the assumption of constant weights can potentially lead to inaccurate market share forecast for high-tech, short life-cycle products that are launched several months after the choice-based modelling has been conducted.
Date of Award7 Oct 2015
LanguageEnglish
Awarding Institution
  • University of Bath
SupervisorSheik Meeran (Supervisor) & Paul Goodwin (Supervisor)

Keywords

  • Choice models
  • Conjoint Anlysis
  • Choice based conjoint Analysis
  • Consumer preferences
  • New product forecasting
  • Attribute Weight

Cite this

The Impact of Consumer and Product Characteristics on Change in Attribute- Weights over Time and its Implications for New Product Sales Forecasting Using Choice-based Conjoint Analysis
Jahanbin, S. (Author). 7 Oct 2015

Student thesis: Doctoral ThesisPhD