This research investigates three approaches to new product sales forecasting: statistical, judgmental and the integration of these two approaches. The aim of the research is to find a simple, easy-to-use, low cost and accurate tool which can be used by managers to forecast the sales of new products. A review of the literature suggested that the Bass diffusion model was an appropriate statistical method for new product sales forecasting. For the judgmental approach, after considering different methods and constraints, such as bias, complexity, lack of accuracy, high cost and time involvement, the Delphi method was identified from the literature as a method, which has the potential to mitigate bias and produces accurate predictions at a low cost in a relatively short time. However, the literature also revealed that neither of the methods: statistical or judgmental, can be guaranteed to give the best forecasts independently, and a combination of them is the often best approach to obtaining the most accurate predictions.
The study aims to compare these three approaches by applying them to actual sales data. To forecast the sales of new products, the Bass diffusion model was fitted to the sales history of similar (analogous) products that had been launched in the past and the resulting model was used to produce forecasts for the new products at the time of their launch. These forecasts were compared with forecasts produced through the Delphi method and also through a combination of statistical and judgmental methods. All results were also compared to the benchmark levels of accuracy, based on previous research and forecasts based on various combinations of the analogous products’ historic sales data. Although no statistically significant difference was found in the accuracy of forecasts, produced by the three approaches, the results were more accurate than those obtained using parameters suggested by previous researchers. The limitations of the research are discussed at the end of the thesis, together with suggestions for future research.
|Date of Award||1 Oct 2011|
|Supervisor||Paul Goodwin (Supervisor)|
- new product forecasting
- diffusion model