Live well or save the planet?

: Greenhouse gas reduction, carbon finance, and wellbeing in the Global South

Abstract

This thesis examines whether carbon-reducing actions (CRAs) in the Global South generate social co-benefits—that is, positive development effects—while contributing to greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Grounded in Sen’s Capability Approach, it conceptualises CRAs as policy instruments that may expand or constrain development outcomes depending on institutional and contextual conditions. The main research question asks: how do CRAs affect human development outcomes, and under what conditions do positive social co-benefits emerge?

The study adopts a sequential mixed-methods design. First, a global quantitative analysis of 103 countries employs Partial Least Squares–Structural Equation Modelling (PLS- SEM) to examine relationships between carbon finance, institutional capacity, carbon emissions, and human development across income groups. Second, a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) of 17 countries investigates combinations of conditions associated with positive social co-benefits.

The PLS-SEM findings show that CRAs correlate with reductions in carbon emissions, but their developmental implications are heterogeneous and configuration-dependent. Institutional capacity mediates the relationship between carbon finance and emissions reduction, demonstrating that finance alone does not guarantee effective emissions reduction. Grant finance plays a more developmentally significant role in low-income contexts, while non-grant instruments are more prominent in higher-income settings.
QCA results reveal that low carbon emissions per capita constitute a necessary but insufficient condition for social co-benefits.

Improved livelihoods occur where low emissions per capita are combined with internationally financed CRAs, forming a necessary and sufficient configuration. More complex configurations are required for other types of social co-benefits: low emissions per capita must interact with internationally financed CRAs, urban population, and high climate risk preparedness, or alternatively with domestically financed CRAs, urban population, and high preparedness. These findings demonstrate that social co-benefits arise only through specific conjunctures of emissions profiles, financing modalities, and contextual conditions. In the absence of low emissions per capita, these configurations do not hold.

By integrating structural equation modelling with qualitative comparative analysis, the thesis advances a configurational understanding of carbon policy. The task is not to choose between living well or saving the planet, but to design institutions, financial structures, and policy sequences capable of aligning CRAs with capability-enhancing development trajectories.

Date of Award	22 Apr 2026
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	University of Bath
Supervisor	Alistair Hunt (Supervisor) & James Copestake (Supervisor)