Investment in sovereign disaster risk financing strategies: a review, with particular reference to the experience of small island states from 2010 to 2019.

Abstract

This doctoral thesis investigates the critical field of sovereign Disaster Risk Finance (DRF) against the backdrop of natural hazards’ profound macro- and micro-economic impacts on countries and the increasing challenges posed by climate change. The study positions itself within the last two decades of evolving DRF policies, especially in low- and middle-income countries, with the InsuResilience Global Partnership (IGP) as a prominent promoter.
The thesis used a multifaceted approach, integrating qualitative and quantitative methodologies, to comprehensively appraise alternative sovereign DRF strategies as developed between 2010 and 2019. It encompasses analysis of the macro-economic, fiscal, and meso-micro-level situation of several small island states (SIDS) in Africa, the Caribbean, and the Pacific. The analysis combines various tools, including the review of 99 Post-Disaster Needs Assessments (PDNA) and the compilation of financial information in a comprehensive database, a multi-criteria analysis (MCA), eight detailed case studies, as well as Difference-in-Difference (DID) analysis, to generate nuanced insights into the intricate relationship between disasters, sovereign DRF strategies, and socio-economic development, particularly in 15 SIDS.
The thesis underlines the complex dynamics of disasters, DRF strategies, and socio-economic factors in SIDS, offering policymakers insights into proactive disaster risk management approaches. The study sheds light on the positive impacts of DRF instruments on macro-economic resilience, fiscal stability, and public financial management. However, it also unveils challenges and obstacles to effective DRF, including the need for closer links between DRF pay-outs and social protection systems to directly benefit the affected population. The research develops and applies a replicable DRF monitoring framework to enable decision-makers to assess the effectiveness of sovereign DRF strategies, using readily available data and common software applications. The findings emphasize the need for ongoing refinement of DRF instruments and strategies, longer-term analyses, and adaptability to evolving global challenges, paving the way for future research and policy development in this critical domain.

Date of Award	22 Jan 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Institute for Policy Research (IPR) Department of Social & Policy Sciences
Supervisor	Charles Larkin (Supervisor) & James Copestake (Supervisor)