Inflation Dynamics And Its Effects On Monetary Policy Rules

  • Elvis Musango Moleka

Student thesis: Doctoral ThesisPhD


This thesis examines dynamic relationships between inflation and monetary policy in a sample of African economies using quarterly data over the period 1980:01 to 2012:04. The literature on inflation dynamics and monetary policy focuses on developed economies, with little attention devoted to the African economies, which is potentially explained by the fact that in the past monetary policy played second fiddle because of fiscal policy dominance following episodes of high inflation and stabilization policies that occurred in the 1980's. This thesis fills an important gap in assessing African's monetary policy.The thesis predominantly uses the Vector-Autoregression (VAR) framework to examine the monetary policy frameworks of the African economies. The thesis finds that an interest rate shock on average explain a more significant proportion of the variance in the output gap and inflation than the exchange rate, in terms of analysing the decomposition of shocks to the economy. This shows a shift in the monetary policy focus away from exchange rate management to interest rate targeting as the African economies have become more market oriented. The monetary policy reveal strong asymmetric responses with respect to the macroeconomic variables when inflation exceeds its threshold value. The analysis suggests that monetary policy in the African economies is regime-dependent, propagated through the inflation thresholds, such that the authorities strongly implement policy changes when inflation goes beyond a certain threshold. The thesis reveals that by taking into account the prior belief of the monetary authorities, it helps produce better estimates of the performance of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, as it combines prior information with the sampling information which is contained in the data. The overall novelty of the thesis is that some African economies are adopting inflation targeting policies instead of exchange rate management. It is imperative that the subsequent inflation targeting frameworks will achieve monetary policy objectives for the African economies and the use of interest rate management should be continued.
Date of Award18 Nov 2015
Original languageEnglish
Awarding Institution
  • University of Bath
SupervisorNikolaos Sakkas (Supervisor), Bruce Morley (Supervisor) & Ahmad Ahmad (Supervisor)


  • Inflation Dynamics, Monetary Policy, Shocks, Inflation Persistence, Structural Breaks, Transmission Mechanism, Exchange Rate, Inflation Thresholds, VARs, Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAP), African economies, Macroeconomic Policies, Economic Development

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