Impact of Urban-Rural Divides on Sustainable Peace in Afghanistan (2001-2021)

Abstract

This thesis investigates how Afghanistan’s persistent urban–rural disparities functioned as horizontal inequalities (HIs) and shaped the prospects for sustainable peace between 2001 and 2021. The divide between urban Afghanistan, particularly Kabul, and rural areas was not simply a matter of uneven development but reflected structural inequalities that undermined state legitimacy and provided fertile ground for insurgency. The analysis focuses on three interconnected dimensions of horizontal inequality: education inequalities, income and wealth disparities, and governance–security inequalities to examine how national policies, donor-driven programmes, and centralised governance disproportionately privileged the capital and other cities while leaving rural districts comparatively neglected. These imbalances entrenched disparities in access to schooling, employment, and infrastructure, while reinforcing perceptions among rural communities of exclusion from the state. Adopting a qualitative, interpretivist approach, the research draws on 36 semi-structured interviews with Afghan policymakers, aid workers, civil society actors, and community representatives with lived experience of rural and urban areas, complemented by documentary analysis of government strategies, donor reports, and secondary literature. The findings show that urban–rural inequalities were widely perceived as collective experiences of neglect and privilege, which interacted with ethnic and regional identities to reinforce exclusion. Such dynamics shaped grievances that insurgent actors could mobilise: the Taliban, in particular, embedded themselves in rural communities by exploiting these disparities and positioning themselves against an urban-centred state. The study makes three contributions. Academically, it applies HI theory to Afghanistan in a systematic way, demonstrating how spatial divides can function as a salient dimension of inequality with conflict implications. Empirically, it provides the first sustained account of how urban–rural divides, as well as Kabul’s exceptionalism, shaped the Taliban’s resurgence and the fragility of peacebuilding. For policy, it highlights the dangers of capital-focused state-building and underscores the need for territorially balanced development and inclusive governance.

Date of Award	22 Apr 2026
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	University of Bath
Supervisor	Oliver Walton (Supervisor), Naomi Pendle (Supervisor) & Rana Jawad (Supervisor)