Climate Resilience and Gentrification in Coastal Cities: A New Framework for Mitigating Maladaptation

Abstract

The rapid urbanisation of coastal cities, combined with the increasing impacts of climate change, has created new socio-economic challenges, particularly in the form of climate gentrification. This phenomenon occurs when investments in climate resilience, such as infrastructure improvements, unintentionally displace vulnerable populations, driving housing inequality and altering the social fabric of affected areas. This thesis explores the manifestation of climate gentrification in coastal cities in Africa using Lagos, Nigeria, as the case study. Lagos is a rapidly growing coastal city facing frequent flooding and severe housing deficits. The research investigates how the resilience of housing infrastructure to flood risk, rather than traditional factors such as the elevation of geographies, drives gentrification patterns in this unique urban context.
The focus of this research is threefold: (1) to examine how climate resilience drives climate gentrification in Lagos coastal city; (2) to identify key indicators that assesses this phenomenon; and (3) to develop an assessment framework that enables stakeholders to identify the manifestations of the phenomenon and implement strategies to mitigate its impact on vulnerable populations. To address these objectives, a multi-method approach was employed, integrating qualitative and quantitative techniques within a case study framework. The research is grounded in a postmodernist philosophical stance, emphasizing context-specific physical, socio-economic, governance and policy factors that shape urban resilience and gentrifying patterns. A hybrid deductive–inductive approach was adopted to test existing theories while generating new insights from empirical qualitative data. The methodology integrated both qualitative and quantitative evidence to examine the dynamics of climate gentrification in Lagos. Qualitative data were collected through focus group discussions (FGDs), direct field observations, and archival document analysis to capture lived experiences and stakeholder perspectives. Quantitative evidence was derived from spatial housing analysis, flood mapping, and longitudinal climate datasets (temperature, rainfall, and land cover), complemented by housing market inventories and media archives.
All data sources were triangulated and cross-checked to ensure validity, consistency, and reliability. The study focused on six purposively selected coastal neighbourhoods, collecting cross-sectional primary data and integrating thematic analysis of qualitative findings with longitudinal and secondary datasets. Ethical standards were rigorously maintained throughout the research, ensuring informed consent, confidentiality, and data integrity through systematic triangulation and peer review.
The key findings reveal that in Lagos, infrastructure resilience, particularly investments in flood defences like the design, material, and maintenance of houses, drainage, roads, and domestic waste management systems is a notable driver of climate gentrification. Wealthier neighbourhoods (in the Lagos Island area) benefit disproportionately from these improvements, leading to increased property values, rising rental prices, and the displacement of lower-income residents. In contrast, under-resourced areas like Makoko remain vulnerable to severe flooding impacts due to inadequate infrastructure, reinforcing socio-economic disparities. The study identifies key indicators of climate gentrification, including infrastructure quality, property value trends, and demographic changes, which can be applied to assess climate-induced displacement in other urban contexts. By highlighting the socio-economic consequences of climate resilience efforts, the research underscores the need for inclusive and equitable approaches to urban climate adaptation, ensuring that all residents, particularly the most vulnerable benefit from resilient infrastructure investments.
This research makes several original contributions to the field. Theoretically, it establishes resilient infrastructure as a central variable, challenging the traditional focus on geographical elevation. It also established the importance of equitable urban planning policies that prioritize the distribution of resilient infrastructure across all neighbourhoods, particularly in vulnerable communities.
Therefore, methodologically, a validated framework and tool for assessing climate gentrification and devising actionable strategies for policy decisions and urban planning was also proposed. Additionally, this study demonstrates the value of combining qualitative and quantitative approaches to capture the complexities of urban resilience and gentrification. Empirically, the study provides new insights from a Global South perspective, contributing to the broader understanding of climate gentrification in rapidly urbanizing cities.
The thesis concludes with recommendations include the implementation of an equitable infrastructure investment plan, rent control measures, and community engagement initiatives to ensure that climate resilience efforts do not exacerbate existing socio-economic inequalities. Future research should expand the scope of this study by conducting comparative analyses across different coastal regions in Africa and adopting longitudinal approaches to assess the long-term impacts of climate resilience efforts.

Date of Award	10 Dec 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	University of Bath
Supervisor	Kemi Adeyeye (Supervisor) & Alexander Copping (Supervisor)