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Uncertainty in MD-Derived Diffusion Coefficients Depends on Analysis Protocol, Not Just Simulation Data

  • University of Bristol
  • Diamond Light Source Limited

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Bonkowski and De Souza [Sol. Stat. Ionics 429, 116967 (2025)] provide a guide for performing molecular dynamics simulations of ion transport, including methods for estimating diffusion coefficients and their uncertainties from mean-squared displacement (MSD) data. The discussion of uncertainty in estimated diffusion coefficients presents the statistical properties of specific analysis protocols—ordinary least squares regression with particular data processing choices and other, statistically equivalent, approaches—without explicitly stating the scope of applicability for these results. Without explicit scope statements, the guide presents these results as universal characteristics of diffusion coefficient estimation; i.e., uncertainty in D∗ is determined only by the input simulation data. Here, we clarify that for diffusion coefficients estimated by linear regression of MSD data, the uncertainty depends not only on the input simulation data, but also on the choice
of statistical estimator (OLS, WLS, GLS) and data processing decisions (fitting window extent, time-averaging). By clarifying this dependence on analysis protocol, we hope to help researchers avoid incorrect uncertainty estimates and to encourage adoption of statistically efficient methods for analysing molecular dynamics simulations.
Original languageEnglish
Article number117249
Number of pages4
JournalSolid State Ionics
Volume444
Early online date25 Jun 2026
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2026

Data Availability Statement

Additional supporting information is available at Ref. [7] under an
MIT license, including the code used to generate the simulation data
and run the analyses presented in this work, as well as the code used
to generate Figs. 1 and 2.

Keywords

  • Molecular dynamics
  • Diffusion coefficient
  • Mean-squared displacement
  • Uncertainty quantification
  • Linear regression
  • Statistical analysis

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