Tsunami hazards and risks from the Philippine Trench: The cases of 2012 and 2023 Mw 7.6 tsunamigenic earthquakes

Mohammad Heidarzadeh; Aditya Riadi Gusman; Iyan Eka Mulia; Constance Ting Chua; Anawat Suppasri

doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2025.120985

Tsunami hazards and risks from the Philippine Trench: The cases of 2012 and 2023 Mw 7.6 tsunamigenic earthquakes

Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Aditya Riadi Gusman, Iyan Eka Mulia, Constance Ting Chua, Anawat Suppasri

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

This paper presents a novel study on tsunami hazard and risk for the eastern Philippines, focusing on the underexplored Philippine Trench: a major tsunamigenic zone responsible for past destructive events. To address this pressing need, we model and analyze the generation mechanisms of two real Mw 7.6 events, occurred in August 2012 and December 2023, and expand our analysis to three hypothetical giant events: Mw 8.0, Mw 8.5, and Mw 9.0. The maximum tide gauge amplitudes recorded from the two actual Mw 7.6 events were 12.5 cm for the 2023 tsunami and 3.7 cm for the 2012 event. The tsunami waves from the 2023 tsunami had longer periods (6.7–28.2 min) compared to those from the 2012 tsunami (8.0–18.3 min), which is attributed to the deeper water surrounding the 2012 event's source area. Modeling a hypothetical Mw 9.0 event indicates that maximum coastal tsunami heights could reach up to 17.4 m, making it comparable to the giant tsunamis of 2011 in Japan and 2004 in the Indian Ocean. We conducted a tsunami risk analysis for the coastal town of Dapa for an Mw 8.5 event, which revealed that 218 buildings, including a designated evacuation center, could be inundated.

Original language	English
Article number	120985
Journal	Ocean Engineering
Volume	329
Early online date	10 Apr 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2025.120985
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 10 Apr 2025

Data Availability Statement

The bathymetric data is from the GEBCO digital atlas (https://www.gebco.net/). Tide gauge data are provided by Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's sea level station monitoring facility (http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org/map.php). The USGS earthquake source model can be found here: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000jllz/finite-fault. Other data can be provided by writing to the corresponding author.

Acknowledgements

Some figures were drafted using the GMT mapping tool (Wessel and Smith 1998). We acknowledge the University of Bath Institutional Open Access Fund. We are sincerely grateful to the editor and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive review comments.

Funding

MH is funded by open funding of State Key Lab of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University (grant number SKHL2101) and the Great Britain Sasakawa Foundation (grants number 6217 and 6592). We acknowledge the University of Bath Institutional Open Access Fund. ARG was supported by the New Zealand Ministry for Business, Innovation, and Employment (MBIE) through the Strategic Science Investment Fund (SSIF) and the Rapid Characterization of Earthquakes and Tsunami (R-CET): Fewer deaths and faster recovery project (Endeavour fund). IEM is financially supported by program Hibah Dosen Tidak Tetap Peneliti 2024 managed by The Directorate for Multidisiplinary Science and Technology Implementation (DPITM), Institut Teknologi Bandung, associated with the DAPT EQUITY Program, Indonesia Endowment Fund for Education (LPDP), the Ministry of Finance, Indonesia.

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title = "Tsunami hazards and risks from the Philippine Trench: The cases of 2012 and 2023 Mw 7.6 tsunamigenic earthquakes",

abstract = "This paper presents a novel study on tsunami hazard and risk for the eastern Philippines, focusing on the underexplored Philippine Trench: a major tsunamigenic zone responsible for past destructive events. To address this pressing need, we model and analyze the generation mechanisms of two real Mw 7.6 events, occurred in August 2012 and December 2023, and expand our analysis to three hypothetical giant events: Mw 8.0, Mw 8.5, and Mw 9.0. The maximum tide gauge amplitudes recorded from the two actual Mw 7.6 events were 12.5 cm for the 2023 tsunami and 3.7 cm for the 2012 event. The tsunami waves from the 2023 tsunami had longer periods (6.7–28.2 min) compared to those from the 2012 tsunami (8.0–18.3 min), which is attributed to the deeper water surrounding the 2012 event's source area. Modeling a hypothetical Mw 9.0 event indicates that maximum coastal tsunami heights could reach up to 17.4 m, making it comparable to the giant tsunamis of 2011 in Japan and 2004 in the Indian Ocean. We conducted a tsunami risk analysis for the coastal town of Dapa for an Mw 8.5 event, which revealed that 218 buildings, including a designated evacuation center, could be inundated.",

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AB - This paper presents a novel study on tsunami hazard and risk for the eastern Philippines, focusing on the underexplored Philippine Trench: a major tsunamigenic zone responsible for past destructive events. To address this pressing need, we model and analyze the generation mechanisms of two real Mw 7.6 events, occurred in August 2012 and December 2023, and expand our analysis to three hypothetical giant events: Mw 8.0, Mw 8.5, and Mw 9.0. The maximum tide gauge amplitudes recorded from the two actual Mw 7.6 events were 12.5 cm for the 2023 tsunami and 3.7 cm for the 2012 event. The tsunami waves from the 2023 tsunami had longer periods (6.7–28.2 min) compared to those from the 2012 tsunami (8.0–18.3 min), which is attributed to the deeper water surrounding the 2012 event's source area. Modeling a hypothetical Mw 9.0 event indicates that maximum coastal tsunami heights could reach up to 17.4 m, making it comparable to the giant tsunamis of 2011 in Japan and 2004 in the Indian Ocean. We conducted a tsunami risk analysis for the coastal town of Dapa for an Mw 8.5 event, which revealed that 218 buildings, including a designated evacuation center, could be inundated.

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Tsunami hazards and risks from the Philippine Trench: The cases of 2012 and 2023 Mw 7.6 tsunamigenic earthquakes

Abstract

Data Availability Statement

Acknowledgements

Funding

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