Transforming UK non-residential buildings: achieving a 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050

The UK Climate Change Bill will set in law a 60% cut in carbon emissions relative to 1990 levels by 2050. This paper describes the development of a model to explore the development of the UK nondomestic building stock, energy use and carbon emissions to 2050 under a range of scenarios. The paper discusses the data sources and modelling framework. The stock is undergoing significant evolution as the economy restructures towards a service economy, with strong underlying demographic, economic and social trends and drivers. At the same time there is significant scope for carbon reductions from technical and behavioural change, though this improvement is not being taken up for a range of reasons. The modeling and policy approach could provide the architecture for other countries (within or outside the EU) considering similar policy targets.