Abstract
Amid China’s rise and intensifying China–U.S. competition in the Indo–Pacific
region, it is widely consented among international scholars that a key strategy in
Southeast Asia’s statecraft and geopolitics is the adoption of “hedging” against
great powers, to maximize economic gains and mitigate security risks. For
more than two decades, academic, strategic, and policy studies of Southeast
Asia’s hedging strategies have contributed a wealth of diverse scholarship,
which increasingly influences the academic, strategic, and policy debates among
emerging powers and small- and medium-sized littoral states in the Indo–
Pacific region. This article reviews the literature and identifies key theoretical
developments and research gaps. In response to the recognized conceptual–
methodological gap in effectively addressing, capturing, and mitigating the
structural uncertainties and security risks arising from great power rivalry, this
article outlines a futurist approach to anticipatory methodology. Using a Taiwan
contingency for scenario planning in which the U.S. and China engage in armed
conflict over Taiwan, it imagines possible, plausible, probable, and preferable
scenarios, corresponding policy options, and identifies the limits and strategic
scenarios that South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam would likely consider
and encounter. This article concludes that to preserve a suitable external security
environment for hedging to maximize economic gains and minimize security
risks, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will need to work
closely not only with ASEAN member-states but also with partners to anticipate
different future scenarios and proactively prevent the worst-case scenario of
a Taiwan contingency from occurring. A novel conceptual contribution of
“anticipatory hedging” is therefore made to advance the theoretical development of hedging.
region, it is widely consented among international scholars that a key strategy in
Southeast Asia’s statecraft and geopolitics is the adoption of “hedging” against
great powers, to maximize economic gains and mitigate security risks. For
more than two decades, academic, strategic, and policy studies of Southeast
Asia’s hedging strategies have contributed a wealth of diverse scholarship,
which increasingly influences the academic, strategic, and policy debates among
emerging powers and small- and medium-sized littoral states in the Indo–
Pacific region. This article reviews the literature and identifies key theoretical
developments and research gaps. In response to the recognized conceptual–
methodological gap in effectively addressing, capturing, and mitigating the
structural uncertainties and security risks arising from great power rivalry, this
article outlines a futurist approach to anticipatory methodology. Using a Taiwan
contingency for scenario planning in which the U.S. and China engage in armed
conflict over Taiwan, it imagines possible, plausible, probable, and preferable
scenarios, corresponding policy options, and identifies the limits and strategic
scenarios that South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam would likely consider
and encounter. This article concludes that to preserve a suitable external security
environment for hedging to maximize economic gains and minimize security
risks, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will need to work
closely not only with ASEAN member-states but also with partners to anticipate
different future scenarios and proactively prevent the worst-case scenario of
a Taiwan contingency from occurring. A novel conceptual contribution of
“anticipatory hedging” is therefore made to advance the theoretical development of hedging.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 1598976 |
| Pages (from-to) | 1-20 |
| Number of pages | 20 |
| Journal | Frontiers in Political Science |
| Volume | 7 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 13 Jun 2025 |
Data Availability Statement
The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article/supplementary material, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.Acknowledgements
Author would like to thank Department of Politics, Languages, and International Studies of the University of Bath for supporting 2022 Philippine trip and 2023 trip to Indonesia. In the Philippines, thanks to the hospitality of Yuchengco Center of De La Salle University—Manila, and the Lyceum of Aparri of Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Tuguegarao. In Indonesia, thanks to The Habibie Center in Jakarta and the University of Indonesia for organizing seminars which initial drafts were presented.Funding
The author declares that financial support was received for the research and/or publication of this article. A research grant was provided by Department of Politics, Languages & International Studies of the University of Bath for the fieldwork in the Philippines in August 2022. Another grant was provided by Department of Politics, Languages & International Studies for presenting findings in Indonesia in September 2023.
| Funders | Funder number |
|---|---|
| Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Sheffield | |
| University of Bath |
Keywords
- Southeast Asia
- Taiwan contingency
- anticipations
- geopolitics
- hedging
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Sociology and Political Science
- Safety Research
- Public Administration
- Political Science and International Relations
