Times of branching? The BRICS currency initiative and twelve possible futures for the international monetary system

Armin Haas, Andrei Guter-Sandu, Steffen Murau

Research output: Chapter or section in a book/report/conference proceedingChapter in a published conference proceeding


In Murau, Rini and Haas (2020), we developed four scenarios for the evolution of the international monetary system by 2040. We conceived the system as a hierarchical structure with the US-Dollar at the top of the hierarchy and various other monetary jurisdictions forming a multi-layered periphery. Currently, the BRICS countries consider setting up a new international currency. A possible future is a world split into two monetary spheres, one dominated by the US Dollar, and the other organized around an innovative international credit currency (ICC). We present twelve new scenarios for the impact the current BRICS initiative might have on the currently dominating USDollar System. We show that these scenarios can be conceived as a recombination of the four scenarios of our 2020 article. One scenario is the failure of the BRICS initiative. Eight scenarios depict a variety of ICC, all of them conceived and implemented in a top-down approach. Three scenarios depict evolutionary bottom-up approaches; one focusses on Special Drawing Rights, another on a new class of deposit receipts, and a third one on crypto currencies. We argue that our approach confirms the versatility of scenario analysis.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationUniversity of Lille
Publication statusPublished - 3 Apr 2024

Publication series

NameA better planet for Keynes’s descendants: heterodox monetary proposals based on commodities standards

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