The UK needs a sustainable strategy for COVID-19

Deepti Gurdasani; Laura Bear; Debby Bogaert; Rochelle A. Burgess; Reinhard Busse; Roberto Cacciola; Yves Charpak; Tim Colbourn; John Drury; Karl Friston; Valentino Gallo; Lynn Goldman; Trish Greenhalgh; Zoe Hyde; Krutika Kuppalli; Maimuna Majumder; Jose M. Martin-Moreno; Martin McKee; Susan Michie; Elias Mossialos; Ali Nouri; Christina Pagel; Dominic Pimenta; Saskia Popescu; Viola Priesemann; Angela L. Rasmussen; Stephen Reicher; Walter Ricciardi; Ken Rice; Joshua Silver; Tara C. Smith; Clare Wenham; Robert West; Gavin Yarney; Kit Yates; Hisham Ziauddeen

doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32350-3

The UK needs a sustainable strategy for COVID-19

Deepti Gurdasani
, Laura Bear
, Debby Bogaert
, Rochelle A. Burgess
, Reinhard Busse
, Roberto Cacciola
, Yves Charpak
, Tim Colbourn
, John Drury
, Karl Friston
, Valentino Gallo
, Lynn Goldman
, Trish Greenhalgh
, Zoe Hyde
, Krutika Kuppalli
, Maimuna Majumder
, Jose M. Martin-Moreno
, Martin McKee
, Susan Michie
, Elias Mossialos

Ali Nouri, Christina Pagel, Dominic Pimenta, Saskia Popescu, Viola Priesemann, Angela L. Rasmussen, Stephen Reicher, Walter Ricciardi, Ken Rice, Joshua Silver, Tara C. Smith, Clare Wenham, Robert West, Gavin Yarney, Kit Yates, Hisham Ziauddeen

Research output: Contribution to journal › Letter › peer-review

19 Citations (SciVal)

126 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The UK is well into the second wave of COVID-19, with 60 051 lives lost to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection to date, according to provisional data from the Office for National Statistics. Official UK Government data show that cases have been rising exponentially since late August, 2020, with increases across all regions in England in recent weeks.
As of Nov 4, 2020, the UK had 25 177 confirmed daily cases. These are almost certainly underestimates as between Oct 17 and Oct 23, 2020, England alone had 52 000 estimated daily cases.
Estimates of the effective reproduction number in England vary between 1.1 and 1.6.
Daily deaths have doubled every fortnight since early September, 2020, with 2067 deaths from COVID-19 in the past week and around 12 000 deaths more are likely in the next month—the majority among people who have already been infected. With 12 000 patients currently in hospital with COVID-19, health services are close to capacity in many regions. We are seeing more than 1400 daily hospital admissions in England, a single doubling period away from the peak of 3000 daily admissions that occurred in April, 2020, which could be reached within 2–3 weeks.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1800-1801
Journal	The Lancet
Volume	396
Issue number	10265
Early online date	9 Nov 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32350-3
Publication status	Published - 5 Dec 2020

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

Keywords

Public Health
COVID 19
Strategy

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long_term_strategy_COVID_v3_final_HZ.PDFAccepted author manuscript, 503 KBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

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Gurdasani, D., Bear, L., Bogaert, D., Burgess, R. A., Busse, R., Cacciola, R., Charpak, Y., Colbourn, T., Drury, J., Friston, K., Gallo, V., Goldman, L., Greenhalgh, T., Hyde, Z., Kuppalli, K., Majumder, M., Martin-Moreno, J. M., McKee, M., Michie, S., ... Ziauddeen, H. (2020). The UK needs a sustainable strategy for COVID-19. The Lancet, 396(10265), 1800-1801. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32350-3

Gurdasani, D, Bear, L, Bogaert, D, Burgess, RA, Busse, R, Cacciola, R, Charpak, Y, Colbourn, T, Drury, J, Friston, K, Gallo, V, Goldman, L, Greenhalgh, T, Hyde, Z, Kuppalli, K, Majumder, M, Martin-Moreno, JM, McKee, M, Michie, S, Mossialos, E, Nouri, A, Pagel, C, Pimenta, D, Popescu, S, Priesemann, V, Rasmussen, AL, Reicher, S, Ricciardi, W, Rice, K, Silver, J, Smith, TC, Wenham, C, West, R, Yarney, G, Yates, K & Ziauddeen, H 2020, 'The UK needs a sustainable strategy for COVID-19', The Lancet, vol. 396, no. 10265, pp. 1800-1801. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32350-3

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title = "The UK needs a sustainable strategy for COVID-19",

abstract = "The UK is well into the second wave of COVID-19, with 60 051 lives lost to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection to date, according to provisional data from the Office for National Statistics. Official UK Government data show that cases have been rising exponentially since late August, 2020, with increases across all regions in England in recent weeks. As of Nov 4, 2020, the UK had 25 177 confirmed daily cases. These are almost certainly underestimates as between Oct 17 and Oct 23, 2020, England alone had 52 000 estimated daily cases. Estimates of the effective reproduction number in England vary between 1.1 and 1.6. Daily deaths have doubled every fortnight since early September, 2020, with 2067 deaths from COVID-19 in the past week and around 12 000 deaths more are likely in the next month{\textemdash}the majority among people who have already been infected. With 12 000 patients currently in hospital with COVID-19, health services are close to capacity in many regions. We are seeing more than 1400 daily hospital admissions in England, a single doubling period away from the peak of 3000 daily admissions that occurred in April, 2020, which could be reached within 2{\textendash}3 weeks.",

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T1 - The UK needs a sustainable strategy for COVID-19

AU - Gurdasani, Deepti

AU - Bear, Laura

AU - Bogaert, Debby

AU - Burgess, Rochelle A.

AU - Busse, Reinhard

AU - Cacciola, Roberto

AU - Charpak, Yves

AU - Colbourn, Tim

AU - Drury, John

AU - Friston, Karl

AU - Gallo, Valentino

AU - Goldman, Lynn

AU - Greenhalgh, Trish

AU - Hyde, Zoe

AU - Kuppalli, Krutika

AU - Majumder, Maimuna

AU - Martin-Moreno, Jose M.

AU - McKee, Martin

AU - Michie, Susan

AU - Mossialos, Elias

AU - Nouri, Ali

AU - Pagel, Christina

AU - Pimenta, Dominic

AU - Popescu, Saskia

AU - Priesemann, Viola

AU - Rasmussen, Angela L.

AU - Reicher, Stephen

AU - Ricciardi, Walter

AU - Rice, Ken

AU - Silver, Joshua

AU - Smith, Tara C.

AU - Wenham, Clare

AU - West, Robert

AU - Yarney, Gavin

AU - Yates, Kit

AU - Ziauddeen, Hisham

PY - 2020/12/5

Y1 - 2020/12/5

N2 - The UK is well into the second wave of COVID-19, with 60 051 lives lost to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection to date, according to provisional data from the Office for National Statistics. Official UK Government data show that cases have been rising exponentially since late August, 2020, with increases across all regions in England in recent weeks. As of Nov 4, 2020, the UK had 25 177 confirmed daily cases. These are almost certainly underestimates as between Oct 17 and Oct 23, 2020, England alone had 52 000 estimated daily cases. Estimates of the effective reproduction number in England vary between 1.1 and 1.6. Daily deaths have doubled every fortnight since early September, 2020, with 2067 deaths from COVID-19 in the past week and around 12 000 deaths more are likely in the next month—the majority among people who have already been infected. With 12 000 patients currently in hospital with COVID-19, health services are close to capacity in many regions. We are seeing more than 1400 daily hospital admissions in England, a single doubling period away from the peak of 3000 daily admissions that occurred in April, 2020, which could be reached within 2–3 weeks.

AB - The UK is well into the second wave of COVID-19, with 60 051 lives lost to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection to date, according to provisional data from the Office for National Statistics. Official UK Government data show that cases have been rising exponentially since late August, 2020, with increases across all regions in England in recent weeks. As of Nov 4, 2020, the UK had 25 177 confirmed daily cases. These are almost certainly underestimates as between Oct 17 and Oct 23, 2020, England alone had 52 000 estimated daily cases. Estimates of the effective reproduction number in England vary between 1.1 and 1.6. Daily deaths have doubled every fortnight since early September, 2020, with 2067 deaths from COVID-19 in the past week and around 12 000 deaths more are likely in the next month—the majority among people who have already been infected. With 12 000 patients currently in hospital with COVID-19, health services are close to capacity in many regions. We are seeing more than 1400 daily hospital admissions in England, a single doubling period away from the peak of 3000 daily admissions that occurred in April, 2020, which could be reached within 2–3 weeks.

KW - Public Health

KW - COVID 19

KW - Strategy

U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32350-3

DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32350-3

M3 - Letter

SN - 0140-6736

VL - 396

SP - 1800

EP - 1801

JO - The Lancet

JF - The Lancet

IS - 10265

ER -

The UK needs a sustainable strategy for COVID-19

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

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