The theta model: An essential forecasting tool for supply chain planning

Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Vassilios Assimakopoulos, Nikolaos Bougioukos, Akrivi Litsa, Fotios Petropoulos

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The Theta model created a lot of interest in academic circles due to its surprising performance in the M3-competition, the biggest ever time series forecasting competition. As a result in the subsequent years it became a benchmark in any empirical forecasting exercise and an essential tool for efficient Supply Chain Management ad planning as it provides very accurate point forecasts. The present study focuses on if the Theta model is a special case of Simple Exponential Smoothing with drift (SES-d). The Theta model outperforms SES-d in the Quarterly-M3 and Other-M3 subsets by 0.30% and 0.36%.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Automation and Robotics, Vol. 2 - Selected Papers from the 2011 International Conference on Automation and Robotics, ICAR 2011
Pages431-437
Number of pages7
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-642-25646-2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 6 Dec 2011
Event2011 International Conference on Automation and Robotics, ICAR 2011 - Dubai, UAE United Arab Emirates
Duration: 1 Dec 20112 Dec 2011

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Electrical Engineering
Volume123 LNEE
ISSN (Print)1876-1100
ISSN (Electronic)1876-1119

Conference

Conference2011 International Conference on Automation and Robotics, ICAR 2011
CountryUAE United Arab Emirates
CityDubai
Period1/12/112/12/11

Keywords

  • Exponential Smoothing
  • M3-Competition
  • Supply Chain forecasting
  • Theta model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

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