The theta model: An essential forecasting tool for supply chain planning

Konstantinos Nikolopoulos; Vassilios Assimakopoulos; Nikolaos Bougioukos; Akrivi Litsa; Fotios Petropoulos

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-25646-2_56

The theta model: An essential forecasting tool for supply chain planning

Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Vassilios Assimakopoulos, Nikolaos Bougioukos, Akrivi Litsa, Fotios Petropoulos

Research output: Chapter or section in a book/report/conference proceeding › Chapter in a published conference proceeding

12 Citations (SciVal)

Abstract

The Theta model created a lot of interest in academic circles due to its surprising performance in the M3-competition, the biggest ever time series forecasting competition. As a result in the subsequent years it became a benchmark in any empirical forecasting exercise and an essential tool for efficient Supply Chain Management ad planning as it provides very accurate point forecasts. The present study focuses on if the Theta model is a special case of Simple Exponential Smoothing with drift (SES-d). The Theta model outperforms SES-d in the Quarterly-M3 and Other-M3 subsets by 0.30% and 0.36%.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Advances in Automation and Robotics, Vol. 2 - Selected Papers from the 2011 International Conference on Automation and Robotics, ICAR 2011
Pages	431-437
Number of pages	7
ISBN (Electronic)	978-3-642-25646-2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25646-2_56
Publication status	Published - 6 Dec 2011
Event	2011 International Conference on Automation and Robotics, ICAR 2011 - Dubai, UAE United Arab Emirates Duration: 1 Dec 2011 → 2 Dec 2011

Publication series

Name	Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering
Volume	123 LNEE
ISSN (Print)	1876-1100
ISSN (Electronic)	1876-1119

Conference

Conference	2011 International Conference on Automation and Robotics, ICAR 2011
Country/Territory	UAE United Arab Emirates
City	Dubai
Period	1/12/11 → 2/12/11

Keywords

Exponential Smoothing
M3-Competition
Supply Chain forecasting
Theta model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-642-25646-2_56

Cite this

Nikolopoulos, K., Assimakopoulos, V., Bougioukos, N., Litsa, A., & Petropoulos, F. (2011). The theta model: An essential forecasting tool for supply chain planning. In Advances in Automation and Robotics, Vol. 2 - Selected Papers from the 2011 International Conference on Automation and Robotics, ICAR 2011 (pp. 431-437). (Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering; Vol. 123 LNEE). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25646-2_56

The theta model: An essential forecasting tool for supply chain planning. / Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos; Assimakopoulos, Vassilios; Bougioukos, Nikolaos et al.
Advances in Automation and Robotics, Vol. 2 - Selected Papers from the 2011 International Conference on Automation and Robotics, ICAR 2011. 2011. p. 431-437 (Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering; Vol. 123 LNEE).

Research output: Chapter or section in a book/report/conference proceeding › Chapter in a published conference proceeding

Nikolopoulos, K, Assimakopoulos, V, Bougioukos, N, Litsa, A & Petropoulos, F 2011, The theta model: An essential forecasting tool for supply chain planning. in Advances in Automation and Robotics, Vol. 2 - Selected Papers from the 2011 International Conference on Automation and Robotics, ICAR 2011. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, vol. 123 LNEE, pp. 431-437, 2011 International Conference on Automation and Robotics, ICAR 2011, Dubai, UAE United Arab Emirates, 1/12/11. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25646-2_56

Nikolopoulos K, Assimakopoulos V, Bougioukos N, Litsa A, Petropoulos F. The theta model: An essential forecasting tool for supply chain planning. In Advances in Automation and Robotics, Vol. 2 - Selected Papers from the 2011 International Conference on Automation and Robotics, ICAR 2011. 2011. p. 431-437. (Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering). doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-25646-2_56

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The theta model: An essential forecasting tool for supply chain planning

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