The long-term and economic impact of childhood early life shocks

Childhood exposure to famine represents a severe early-life shock that may shape health, cognitive, and labour-market outcomes across the life course. Yet evidence on its causal consequences in later life remains limited. This study examines whether early-life starvation during the Great Chinese Famine (1959–1961) affected later-life health, cognitive functioning, and labour-market outcomes. The analysis draws on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), collected in 2014 and 2018, and uses a final analytical sample of 15,471 individuals born between 1941 and 1974. We exploit prefecture-level famine intensity and famine exposure to instrument for self-reported childhood starvation, allowing for the identification of heterogeneous effects across childhood age stages. Our findings point to early childhood (ages 0–5) as a particularly sensitive period. Starvation during this stage is associated with poorer memory and a higher prevalence of arthritis and rheumatism, with more tentative evidence of adverse labour-market consequences, including health-related job discrimination and early retirement. Cognitive and physical outcomes are more pronounced for females, while economic penalties are concentrated among males, reflecting the gendered allocation of intra-household resources and labour pressures. Exposure during later childhood shows weaker effects. Overall, this study demonstrates that early-life nutritional shocks have long-lasting, age- and gender-specific consequences, emphasising the critical role of early childhood nutrition in shaping human capital, cognitive development, and labour-market participation in later life. These findings highlight the long-term costs of early-life deprivation and suggest that policies protecting children during periods of crisis may generate benefits across the life course.