The End of Adaptive Authoritarianism in Russia?

This article argues that the Russian regime is at a crossroads caused by the war on Ukraine. In the past, the Russian authorities were adept at reacting to events and constantly developing best survival practices to maintain power. The authorities were adept at authoritarian learning to create an effective survival palette for survival and constructing a virtual political system. Yet, by 2020 this was no longer as effective as before. The war on Ukraine was – partially at least – a legitimation exercise to increase popular support. A short successful war would provide legitimacy for the regime, thereby giving it popular support and allowing the regime time to re-locate the previous adaptive capacity. Yet, the war on Ukraine had the opposite effect than regime legitimation and has potentially precipitated the end of Russian adaptive autocracy.