The emperor penguin - Vulnerable to projected rates of warming and sea ice loss

Philip N. Trathan, Barbara Wienecke, Christophe Barbraud, Stéphanie Jenouvrier, Gerald Kooyman, Céline Le Bohec, David G. Ainley, André Ancel, Daniel P. Zitterbart, Steven L. Chown, Michelle Larue, Robin Cristofari, Jane Younger, Gemma Clucas, Charles-andré Bost, Jennifer A. Brown, Harriet J. Gillett, Peter T. Fretwell

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

Abstract

We argue the need to improve climate change forecasting for ecology, and importantly, how to relate long-term projections to conservation. As an example, we discuss the need for effective management of one species, the emperor penguin, Aptenodyptes forsteri. This species is unique amongst birds in that its breeding habit is critically dependent upon seasonal fast ice. Here, we review its vulnerability to ongoing and projected climate change, given that sea ice is susceptible to changes in winds and temperatures. We consider published projections of future emperor penguin population status in response to changing environments. Furthermore, we evaluate the current IUCN Red List status for the species, and recommend that its status be changed to Vulnerable, based on different modelling projections of population decrease of ≥50% over the current century, and the specific traits of the species. We conclude that current conservation measures are inadequate to protect the species under future projected scenarios. Only a reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will reduce threats to the emperor penguin from altered wind regimes, rising temperatures and melting sea ice; until such time, other conservation actions are necessary, including increased spatial protection at breeding sites and foraging locations. The designation of large-scale marine spatial protection across its range would benefit the species, particularly in areas that have a high probability of becoming future climate change refugia. We also recommend that the emperor penguin is listed by the Antarctic Treaty as an Antarctic Specially Protected Species, with development of a species Action Plan.
Original languageEnglish
Article number108216
JournalBiological Conservation
Early online date8 Oct 2019
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 8 Oct 2019

Cite this

Trathan, P. N., Wienecke, B., Barbraud, C., Jenouvrier, S., Kooyman, G., Le Bohec, C., ... Fretwell, P. T. (2019). The emperor penguin - Vulnerable to projected rates of warming and sea ice loss. Biological Conservation, [108216]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.108216

The emperor penguin - Vulnerable to projected rates of warming and sea ice loss. / Trathan, Philip N.; Wienecke, Barbara; Barbraud, Christophe; Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Kooyman, Gerald; Le Bohec, Céline; Ainley, David G.; Ancel, André; Zitterbart, Daniel P.; Chown, Steven L.; Larue, Michelle; Cristofari, Robin; Younger, Jane; Clucas, Gemma; Bost, Charles-andré; Brown, Jennifer A.; Gillett, Harriet J.; Fretwell, Peter T.

In: Biological Conservation, 08.10.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

Trathan, PN, Wienecke, B, Barbraud, C, Jenouvrier, S, Kooyman, G, Le Bohec, C, Ainley, DG, Ancel, A, Zitterbart, DP, Chown, SL, Larue, M, Cristofari, R, Younger, J, Clucas, G, Bost, C, Brown, JA, Gillett, HJ & Fretwell, PT 2019, 'The emperor penguin - Vulnerable to projected rates of warming and sea ice loss', Biological Conservation. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.108216
Trathan PN, Wienecke B, Barbraud C, Jenouvrier S, Kooyman G, Le Bohec C et al. The emperor penguin - Vulnerable to projected rates of warming and sea ice loss. Biological Conservation. 2019 Oct 8. 108216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.108216
Trathan, Philip N. ; Wienecke, Barbara ; Barbraud, Christophe ; Jenouvrier, Stéphanie ; Kooyman, Gerald ; Le Bohec, Céline ; Ainley, David G. ; Ancel, André ; Zitterbart, Daniel P. ; Chown, Steven L. ; Larue, Michelle ; Cristofari, Robin ; Younger, Jane ; Clucas, Gemma ; Bost, Charles-andré ; Brown, Jennifer A. ; Gillett, Harriet J. ; Fretwell, Peter T. / The emperor penguin - Vulnerable to projected rates of warming and sea ice loss. In: Biological Conservation. 2019.
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abstract = "We argue the need to improve climate change forecasting for ecology, and importantly, how to relate long-term projections to conservation. As an example, we discuss the need for effective management of one species, the emperor penguin, Aptenodyptes forsteri. This species is unique amongst birds in that its breeding habit is critically dependent upon seasonal fast ice. Here, we review its vulnerability to ongoing and projected climate change, given that sea ice is susceptible to changes in winds and temperatures. We consider published projections of future emperor penguin population status in response to changing environments. Furthermore, we evaluate the current IUCN Red List status for the species, and recommend that its status be changed to Vulnerable, based on different modelling projections of population decrease of ≥50{\%} over the current century, and the specific traits of the species. We conclude that current conservation measures are inadequate to protect the species under future projected scenarios. Only a reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will reduce threats to the emperor penguin from altered wind regimes, rising temperatures and melting sea ice; until such time, other conservation actions are necessary, including increased spatial protection at breeding sites and foraging locations. The designation of large-scale marine spatial protection across its range would benefit the species, particularly in areas that have a high probability of becoming future climate change refugia. We also recommend that the emperor penguin is listed by the Antarctic Treaty as an Antarctic Specially Protected Species, with development of a species Action Plan.",
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AU - Kooyman, Gerald

AU - Le Bohec, Céline

AU - Ainley, David G.

AU - Ancel, André

AU - Zitterbart, Daniel P.

AU - Chown, Steven L.

AU - Larue, Michelle

AU - Cristofari, Robin

AU - Younger, Jane

AU - Clucas, Gemma

AU - Bost, Charles-andré

AU - Brown, Jennifer A.

AU - Gillett, Harriet J.

AU - Fretwell, Peter T.

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N2 - We argue the need to improve climate change forecasting for ecology, and importantly, how to relate long-term projections to conservation. As an example, we discuss the need for effective management of one species, the emperor penguin, Aptenodyptes forsteri. This species is unique amongst birds in that its breeding habit is critically dependent upon seasonal fast ice. Here, we review its vulnerability to ongoing and projected climate change, given that sea ice is susceptible to changes in winds and temperatures. We consider published projections of future emperor penguin population status in response to changing environments. Furthermore, we evaluate the current IUCN Red List status for the species, and recommend that its status be changed to Vulnerable, based on different modelling projections of population decrease of ≥50% over the current century, and the specific traits of the species. We conclude that current conservation measures are inadequate to protect the species under future projected scenarios. Only a reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will reduce threats to the emperor penguin from altered wind regimes, rising temperatures and melting sea ice; until such time, other conservation actions are necessary, including increased spatial protection at breeding sites and foraging locations. The designation of large-scale marine spatial protection across its range would benefit the species, particularly in areas that have a high probability of becoming future climate change refugia. We also recommend that the emperor penguin is listed by the Antarctic Treaty as an Antarctic Specially Protected Species, with development of a species Action Plan.

AB - We argue the need to improve climate change forecasting for ecology, and importantly, how to relate long-term projections to conservation. As an example, we discuss the need for effective management of one species, the emperor penguin, Aptenodyptes forsteri. This species is unique amongst birds in that its breeding habit is critically dependent upon seasonal fast ice. Here, we review its vulnerability to ongoing and projected climate change, given that sea ice is susceptible to changes in winds and temperatures. We consider published projections of future emperor penguin population status in response to changing environments. Furthermore, we evaluate the current IUCN Red List status for the species, and recommend that its status be changed to Vulnerable, based on different modelling projections of population decrease of ≥50% over the current century, and the specific traits of the species. We conclude that current conservation measures are inadequate to protect the species under future projected scenarios. Only a reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will reduce threats to the emperor penguin from altered wind regimes, rising temperatures and melting sea ice; until such time, other conservation actions are necessary, including increased spatial protection at breeding sites and foraging locations. The designation of large-scale marine spatial protection across its range would benefit the species, particularly in areas that have a high probability of becoming future climate change refugia. We also recommend that the emperor penguin is listed by the Antarctic Treaty as an Antarctic Specially Protected Species, with development of a species Action Plan.

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