Abstract

Atypically warm summers such as 2003 and 2018 are predicted to become normal by 2050. If current climate projections are accurate this could cause heat-related mortality to rise by 257% by 2050, the majority of which will be in vulnerable groups such as the elderly. However, little is known about the temperatures achieved in the homes of the elderly even in typical summers, and even less on whether these are comfortable. This study examines, for the first time, the validity of current thermal comfort models in predicting summer comfort levels in the 65+ demographic over a typical and an atypically warm summer. This was achieved through the first longitudinal study of thermal conditions in homes of the elderly in the South West UK, utilising repeated standardised monthly thermal comfort and health surveys with continuous temperature monitoring in both living (LR) and bed rooms (BR). Results show that neither the PMV/PPD model (ISO 7730) nor the adaptive model (ISO 15251) accurately predict true thermal comfort in our sample. Overheating analysis using CIBSE TM59 (based on ISO 15251) suggests significantly more homes (50% LR, 94% BR = 94% overall) overheated during the atypically warm summer, compared to the typical summer (3% LR, 57% = 57% overall). These are worrying results, especially for the elderly, given the projected increases in both the severity and frequency of extreme summers in a future, changed, climate.
LanguageEnglish
JournalBuilding Services Engineering Research and Technology
Early online date24 Apr 2019
DOIs
StatusE-pub ahead of print - 24 Apr 2019

Cite this

@article{834b3e3fbeac44ddbeb0d8dc461c0e66,
title = "Summer thermal comfort and overheating in the elderly",
abstract = "Atypically warm summers such as 2003 and 2018 are predicted to become normal by 2050. If current climate projections are accurate this could cause heat-related mortality to rise by 257{\%} by 2050, the majority of which will be in vulnerable groups such as the elderly. However, little is known about the temperatures achieved in the homes of the elderly even in typical summers, and even less on whether these are comfortable. This study examines, for the first time, the validity of current thermal comfort models in predicting summer comfort levels in the 65+ demographic over a typical and an atypically warm summer. This was achieved through the first longitudinal study of thermal conditions in homes of the elderly in the South West UK, utilising repeated standardised monthly thermal comfort and health surveys with continuous temperature monitoring in both living (LR) and bed rooms (BR). Results show that neither the PMV/PPD model (ISO 7730) nor the adaptive model (ISO 15251) accurately predict true thermal comfort in our sample. Overheating analysis using CIBSE TM59 (based on ISO 15251) suggests significantly more homes (50{\%} LR, 94{\%} BR = 94{\%} overall) overheated during the atypically warm summer, compared to the typical summer (3{\%} LR, 57{\%} = 57{\%} overall). These are worrying results, especially for the elderly, given the projected increases in both the severity and frequency of extreme summers in a future, changed, climate.",
author = "Caroline Hughes and Sukumar Natarajan",
year = "2019",
month = "4",
day = "24",
doi = "10.1177/0143624419844518",
language = "English",
journal = "Building Services Engineering Research and Technology",
issn = "0143-6244",
publisher = "Sage Publications",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Summer thermal comfort and overheating in the elderly

AU - Hughes, Caroline

AU - Natarajan, Sukumar

PY - 2019/4/24

Y1 - 2019/4/24

N2 - Atypically warm summers such as 2003 and 2018 are predicted to become normal by 2050. If current climate projections are accurate this could cause heat-related mortality to rise by 257% by 2050, the majority of which will be in vulnerable groups such as the elderly. However, little is known about the temperatures achieved in the homes of the elderly even in typical summers, and even less on whether these are comfortable. This study examines, for the first time, the validity of current thermal comfort models in predicting summer comfort levels in the 65+ demographic over a typical and an atypically warm summer. This was achieved through the first longitudinal study of thermal conditions in homes of the elderly in the South West UK, utilising repeated standardised monthly thermal comfort and health surveys with continuous temperature monitoring in both living (LR) and bed rooms (BR). Results show that neither the PMV/PPD model (ISO 7730) nor the adaptive model (ISO 15251) accurately predict true thermal comfort in our sample. Overheating analysis using CIBSE TM59 (based on ISO 15251) suggests significantly more homes (50% LR, 94% BR = 94% overall) overheated during the atypically warm summer, compared to the typical summer (3% LR, 57% = 57% overall). These are worrying results, especially for the elderly, given the projected increases in both the severity and frequency of extreme summers in a future, changed, climate.

AB - Atypically warm summers such as 2003 and 2018 are predicted to become normal by 2050. If current climate projections are accurate this could cause heat-related mortality to rise by 257% by 2050, the majority of which will be in vulnerable groups such as the elderly. However, little is known about the temperatures achieved in the homes of the elderly even in typical summers, and even less on whether these are comfortable. This study examines, for the first time, the validity of current thermal comfort models in predicting summer comfort levels in the 65+ demographic over a typical and an atypically warm summer. This was achieved through the first longitudinal study of thermal conditions in homes of the elderly in the South West UK, utilising repeated standardised monthly thermal comfort and health surveys with continuous temperature monitoring in both living (LR) and bed rooms (BR). Results show that neither the PMV/PPD model (ISO 7730) nor the adaptive model (ISO 15251) accurately predict true thermal comfort in our sample. Overheating analysis using CIBSE TM59 (based on ISO 15251) suggests significantly more homes (50% LR, 94% BR = 94% overall) overheated during the atypically warm summer, compared to the typical summer (3% LR, 57% = 57% overall). These are worrying results, especially for the elderly, given the projected increases in both the severity and frequency of extreme summers in a future, changed, climate.

U2 - 10.1177/0143624419844518

DO - 10.1177/0143624419844518

M3 - Article

JO - Building Services Engineering Research and Technology

T2 - Building Services Engineering Research and Technology

JF - Building Services Engineering Research and Technology

SN - 0143-6244

ER -