Space-time modelling of blue ling for fisheries stock management

Nicole H. Augustin, Verena M. Trenkel, Simon N. Wood, Pascal Lorance

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

26 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Fishery catch data offer a rich potential source of information for management, if modelling can separate out the effects of fishing effort, species behaviour and population abundance. Here we model catch data from the blue ling fishery off the northwest coast of Scotland, using Generalized Additive Mixed Models with a space time interaction represented via a novel tensor product of a soap film smooth of space with a penalized regression spline of time. The use of soap film smoothers avoids imposing correspondences between spatially adjacent areas that are in fact separated by the stock boundary. The comparison of the performance of the soap film smooth for space-time with that of a thin plate regression spline (TPRS) based on root mean squared prediction errors and k-means cross-validation suggests that in this application the former is better overall and in particular for modelling local changes. Further, a model with continuous space-year interaction performed better compared to one with an additive space-year effect. After model selection, checking and validation there is evidence for increasing blue ling abundance from 2000-2010 in some spatial locations.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)109-119
Number of pages11
JournalEnvironmetrics
Volume24
Issue number2
Early online date7 Jan 2013
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2013

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Fisheries
Space-time
fishery
Regression Splines
catch statistics
Modeling
modeling
Penalized Regression
Penalized Splines
Thin-plate Spline
Additive Models
Mixed Model
K-means
Prediction Error
Interaction
Mean Squared Error
Cross-validation
Model Selection
Data Model
Tensor Product

Cite this

Space-time modelling of blue ling for fisheries stock management. / Augustin, Nicole H.; Trenkel, Verena M.; Wood, Simon N.; Lorance, Pascal.

In: Environmetrics, Vol. 24, No. 2, 03.2013, p. 109-119.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Augustin, Nicole H. ; Trenkel, Verena M. ; Wood, Simon N. ; Lorance, Pascal. / Space-time modelling of blue ling for fisheries stock management. In: Environmetrics. 2013 ; Vol. 24, No. 2. pp. 109-119.
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