Smoking and risk perception of natural and biological hazards: Challenging risk classification in public health

Giorgio Tiecco; Maria Rosaria Galanti; Blanca Paniello-Castillo; Jasmine Khouja; Marcus Munafó; Gianmarco Pignocchino; Giuliano di Baldassarre; Elena Raffetti

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2025.113962

Smoking and risk perception of natural and biological hazards: Challenging risk classification in public health

Giorgio Tiecco, Maria Rosaria Galanti, Blanca Paniello-Castillo, Jasmine Khouja, Marcus Munafó, Gianmarco Pignocchino, Giuliano di Baldassarre, Elena Raffetti

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Understanding how individuals perceive risks of natural and health hazards can improve risk communication. This study aimed to investigate perceptions of natural and biological hazards among smokers and non-smokers, using smoking as a proxy for risk-taking propensity. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Italy and Sweden in August 2021 with representative samples (n = 4,131). Risk perception across seven hazards was measured using Likert scales. Ordinal logistic regression was used to assess associations between smoking and risk perception, stratified by country and adjusted for sociodemographic confounders. Smoking prevalence was higher in Italy (32.7%) than Sweden (8.8%). In Italy, smokers, particularly moderate-heavy smokers, perceived higher hazard risks than non-smokers. No such pattern was found in Sweden. Contrary to the initial hypothesis, smoking was associated with heightened risk perception in Italy. This study challenges traditional categorizations of risk-seeking versus risk-averse individuals, emphasizing the complex interplay of individual behaviors, perceptions, and societal norms.

Original language	English
Article number	113962
Journal	iScience
Volume	28
Issue number	12
Early online date	5 Nov 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.113962
Publication status	Published - 19 Dec 2025

Data Availability Statement

The datasets generated and analyzed during the current study are available in the Zenodo repository titled ‘‘A comparative dataset on public
perceptions of multiple risks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy
and Sweden,’’ https://zenodo.org/record/5653322#.YoIf4OhBw2x.
• All code to reproduce the analysis is available at https://github.com/
eleraf/risk-perception-and-smoking.
• Any additional information required to reanalyze the data reported in this
work paper is available from the lead contact upon request.

Funding

This research was funded by Karolinska Institutet (grant no. 2020-00322); FORMAS, the Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (grant no. 2023-01774); and the Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science interdisciplinary grant (2021). Data collection was supported by the European Research Council (ERC), consolidator grant no. 77167. E.R.’s work is supported by the Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare (FORTE grant nos. 2022-00882 and 2024-00833), Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (Formas grant nos. 2023-01774 and 2022-01845), and Swedish Research Council (VR, grant nos. 2023-01982 and 2022-06599). J.K. and M.M. are funded by the Medical Research Council (grant no. MC_UU_00032/7). B.P.-C. acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement 865564 (European Research Council Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT), from the Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (Formas) under grant agreement 2022-01845 (project ADATES), and acknowledges support from the grant CEX2023-0001290-S funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033, and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Program.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

Keywords

human geography
public health
smoking

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General

Access to Document

10.1016/j.isci.2025.113962Licence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Smoking and risk perception of natural and biological hazards: Challenging risk classification in public health",

abstract = "Understanding how individuals perceive risks of natural and health hazards can improve risk communication. This study aimed to investigate perceptions of natural and biological hazards among smokers and non-smokers, using smoking as a proxy for risk-taking propensity. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Italy and Sweden in August 2021 with representative samples (n = 4,131). Risk perception across seven hazards was measured using Likert scales. Ordinal logistic regression was used to assess associations between smoking and risk perception, stratified by country and adjusted for sociodemographic confounders. Smoking prevalence was higher in Italy (32.7\%) than Sweden (8.8\%). In Italy, smokers, particularly moderate-heavy smokers, perceived higher hazard risks than non-smokers. No such pattern was found in Sweden. Contrary to the initial hypothesis, smoking was associated with heightened risk perception in Italy. This study challenges traditional categorizations of risk-seeking versus risk-averse individuals, emphasizing the complex interplay of individual behaviors, perceptions, and societal norms.",

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AU - Munafó, Marcus

AU - Pignocchino, Gianmarco

AU - di Baldassarre, Giuliano

AU - Raffetti, Elena

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N2 - Understanding how individuals perceive risks of natural and health hazards can improve risk communication. This study aimed to investigate perceptions of natural and biological hazards among smokers and non-smokers, using smoking as a proxy for risk-taking propensity. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Italy and Sweden in August 2021 with representative samples (n = 4,131). Risk perception across seven hazards was measured using Likert scales. Ordinal logistic regression was used to assess associations between smoking and risk perception, stratified by country and adjusted for sociodemographic confounders. Smoking prevalence was higher in Italy (32.7%) than Sweden (8.8%). In Italy, smokers, particularly moderate-heavy smokers, perceived higher hazard risks than non-smokers. No such pattern was found in Sweden. Contrary to the initial hypothesis, smoking was associated with heightened risk perception in Italy. This study challenges traditional categorizations of risk-seeking versus risk-averse individuals, emphasizing the complex interplay of individual behaviors, perceptions, and societal norms.

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Smoking and risk perception of natural and biological hazards: Challenging risk classification in public health

Abstract

Data Availability Statement

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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