Simple types for probabilistic termination

We present a new typing discipline to guarantee the probability of termination in probabilistic lambda-calculi. The main contribution is a particular naturality and simplicity: our probabilistic types are as simple types, but generated from probabilities as base types, representing a least probability of termination. Simple types are recovered by restricting probabilities to one.

Our vehicle is the Probabilistic Event Lambda-Calculus by Dal Lago, Guerrieri, and Heijltjes, which presents a solution to the issue of confluence in probabilistic lambda-calculi. Our probabilistic type system provides an alternative solution to that using counting quantifiers by Antonelli, Dal Lago, and Pistone, for the same calculus.

The problem that both type systems address is to give a lower bound on the probability that terms head-normalize. Following the recent Functional Machine Calculus by Heijltjes, our development takes the (simplified) Krivine machine as primary, and proceeds via an extension of the calculus with sequential composition and identity on the machine. Our type system then gives a natural account of termination probability on the Krivine machine, reflected back onto head-normalization for the original calculus. In this way we are able to avoid the use of counting quantifiers, while improving on the termination bounds given by Antonelli, Dal Lago, and Pistone.