Scoping of Policy Impacts for Regulating E-cigarettes (SPIRE): findings from a data and decision analytic model mapping project

Background: E-cigarettes, also known as vapes, are lower risk products compared to conventional cigarettes, that can aid smoking cessation. However, they have been developed to also appeal to people who do not smoke, and are not harm-free. The challenge is for vaping policy to support smokers to quit whilst also protecting non-smokers from starting. Simulation modelling can be used to synthesise existing evidence and make predictions about policy impacts. This research aims to identify (a) data sources that can inform modelling of vape policies in the United Kingdom (UK) and (b) gaps in data that are required to undertake appropriate modelling. Methods: We held stakeholder workshops with academic experts, policy makers and public members to understand the requirements of a simulation model of vaping policy and existing data. Based on the findings of the first workshop and a review of existing modelling studies, we undertook a set of targeted rapid reviews to augment key existing reviews. We also developed a dataset dictionary. From these, we developed key recommendations about data collection and modelling. Results: There is substantial UK evidence around many of the transitions between smoking and vaping behaviours, but these have not yet been estimated simultaneously. We also identified 25 UK studies assessing the socioeconomic, psychological and social network influences on vaping behaviours. However, there is limited evidence about the effectiveness of vaping policies in the UK, the impact of industry circumvention, the health harms of vaping for people who have never smoked, longer term evidence on the smoking harms of vaping and the use and impact of illegal vapes. Conclusions: Addressing the identified gaps in the evidence will require targeted new research. By fostering collaboration across disciplines and ensuring transparency and consistency in modelling, the UK can build a credible, evidence-based foundation for shaping effective vape regulation.