Risk assessment of interruption times affecting domestic and non-domestic electricity customers

Legislation defined to protect domestic and non-domestic customers from long durations of interruptions includes additional requirements to system’s reliability-related performance that distribution network operators (DNOs) must consider in planning the operation and maintenance process of power supply systems. DNOs are required to restore the supply to interrupted customers that fall into “unprotected” customer class within a given period of time, otherwise penalties are applied. In order to meet these requirements, comprehensive strategies must be defined based on upfront analyses. Accordingly, this paper proposes a deterministic algorithm for estimating DNOs’ risk of experiencing interruptions with durations above imposed targets. Besides the Regulator-defined legislation, security of supply requirements are engaged in the development of the proposed methodology. Failure analysis of network components is used to identify interrupted customers that are grouped into power demand classes such that the duration of interruptions can be addressed following the security of supply requirements. Moreover, the penalty times defined by the Energy Regulator are engaged in the analysis and used as thresholds to quantify the penalty risk that DNOs are exposed to.

The proposed methodology is applied to a typical UK distribution system, whose average reliability performance is also considered in the analysis.