Refugee exposure and political backlash: Poland during the Russia–Ukraine war

This paper examines how local exposure to refugees affected voting behaviour in Poland following the 2022 inflow of Ukrainian refugees. Using county-level variation in hosted refugees and a shift-share instrument based on historical Ukrainian settlement, we show that an inflow of 1000 refugees reduced support for centre parties by about 0.27 percentage points and increased support for right-wing (incumbent) and far-right parties by 0.10 and 0.12 percentage points, respectively. The effects are economically meaningful relative to average county-level changes in vote shares and mask substantial heterogeneity. The more liberal counties in western Poland experienced political polarisation, with both far-right and left-wing parties gaining support. The rise in far-right support is stronger in rural, lower-wage, and border counties, but significantly weaker in counties with greater school integration of Ukrainian children. The effects are driven by changing voter preferences, rather than election participation or natives’ internal mobility, and are not rooted in adverse economic effects. The results point to the importance of salience, perceived pressure, and local contact in shaping political responses to refugee inflows.