Reducing the exceptional affordability of hand-rolling tobacco using tax escalators: a health and economic impact modelling study for England

Ryan Kai Le Chen; Damon Morris; Colin Angus; Anna Gilmore; Rosemary Hiscock; John Holmes; Tessa E Langley; Robert Pryce; Luke Brian Wilson; Alan Brennan; Duncan Gillespie

doi:10.1136/tc-2025-059670

Reducing the exceptional affordability of hand-rolling tobacco using tax escalators: a health and economic impact modelling study for England

Ryan Kai Le Chen, Damon Morris, Colin Angus, Anna Gilmore, Rosemary Hiscock, John Holmes, Tessa E Langley, Robert Pryce, Luke Brian Wilson, Alan Brennan, Duncan Gillespie

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

Abstract

Hand-rolling tobacco (HRT) remains more affordable than factory-made (FM) cigarettes in the UK, which could undermine the health benefits of tobacco tax increases. This study modelled health and economic impacts of raising HRT duty annually to reduce this affordability gap.

Original language	English
Number of pages	9
Journal	Tobacco Control
Early online date	6 Jan 2026
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1136/tc-2025-059670
Publication status	Published - 6 Jan 2026

Data Availability Statement

Data are available upon reasonable request. Data are available upon reasonable request to the data owners. Data sources are cited in the manuscript and within the online supplemental 1 - Methods, Section 2.

Funding

This work was funded through the SYNTAX project by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its Public Health Research programme (Project Ref 16/105/26). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. The work was also supported by the UK Prevention Research Partnership through the SPECTRUM consortium (MR/S037519/1), which is funded by the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, Natural Environment Research Council, Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), The Health Foundation and Wellcome. The funders had no role in study design, data collection, analysis, interpretation or writing of the report.

Funders	Funder number
National Institute for Health Research

Keywords

Hand-rolled/RYO tobacco
Tobacco Taxation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Health Policy
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1136/tc-2025-059670Licence: CC BY

SPECTRUM
Gilmore, A. (PI)
MRC
1/10/19 → 28/02/25
Project: Research council

Cite this

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AU - Hiscock, Rosemary

AU - Holmes, John

AU - Langley, Tessa E

AU - Pryce, Robert

AU - Wilson, Luke Brian

AU - Brennan, Alan

AU - Gillespie, Duncan

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AB - Hand-rolling tobacco (HRT) remains more affordable than factory-made (FM) cigarettes in the UK, which could undermine the health benefits of tobacco tax increases. This study modelled health and economic impacts of raising HRT duty annually to reduce this affordability gap.

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KW - Tobacco Taxation

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DO - 10.1136/tc-2025-059670

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SN - 1468-3318

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Reducing the exceptional affordability of hand-rolling tobacco using tax escalators: a health and economic impact modelling study for England

Abstract

Data Availability Statement

Funding

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Projects

SPECTRUM

Cite this