Abstract
We investigate the influence of tsunamigenic factors (subsurface models, horizontal seafloor motion, and rupture kinematics) on tsunami source representation and tsunami features for the July 2025 Kamchatka Mw 8.8 earthquake. Slip distributions of three USGS finite-fault models (versions V3, V4 and V5) were first compared. The best agreement was obtained for V3, with a maximum slip of approximately 14.5 m at 30 km depth. Based on V3, we progressively refined the tsunami source representation by incorporating vertical variations of elastic properties of the Earth (layered Earth model), horizontal seafloor motion, and kinematic earthquake rupture. The layered Earth model, compared with the uniform Earth model, increases horizontal displacement by 0.8 m (EW) and 0.4 m (NS), which, combined with steep near-source slopes, further raises surface uplift by 1.2 m (32%). Rupture kinematics amplifies coastal tsunami wave height and energy along the rupture direction and reduces it in the opposite direction. The tsunami presents fault-dimension-dependent peak periods (32–64 min). Simulated coastal tsunami heights indicate that minor variations in coseismic deformation can lead to differences between models exceeding 5% and 10% in 50% and 12% of nearshore coastal areas, respectively. These results indicate that realistic yet computationally efficient representations of tsunami sources are essential for improving both scientific understanding and hazard assessment. They also highlight the role of various tsunamigenic factors in affecting predictions of tsunami height and behavior, thereby guiding tsunami hazard assessments worldwide.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 102776 |
| Journal | Ocean Modelling |
| Volume | 203 |
| Early online date | 5 Jun 2026 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | E-pub ahead of print - 5 Jun 2026 |
Data Availability Statement
The five DART datasets used in this study are publicly available fromNOAA’s DART database (https://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/Dart). Earthquake
source parameters were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey
Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthqu
akes/eventpage/us6000qw60/executive). The tsunami simulations
were conducted using the JAGURS numerical package (Baba et al.,
2015; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6118212). Coseismic deformation in layered media was calculated using PSGRN/PSCMP package
(Wang et al., 2006; Wang and Fialko, 2018; https://pyrocko.org), and
the analytical semi-infinite half-space deformation model based on
Okada (1985, 1992) in JAGURS. The Litho 1.0 Earth model provided the
elastic layered Earth structure (https://igppweb.ucsd.edu/~gabi/lith
o1.0.html#:~:text=The%20LITHO1.,lithospheric%20lid%20and%20
underlying%20asthenosphere). Bathymetry data were obtained from
the GEBCO 15 arc-sec dataset (https://download.gebco.net/). Tidal
components were removed using the UTide MATLAB package (https://
www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/46523-utideunified-tidal-analysis-and-prediction-functions). Power spectral density
analysis was performed using the Welch (1967) method implemented in
Python SciPy (https://scipy.org/). Figures were generated using Python
Matplotlib (https://matplotlib.org/) and the Generic Mapping Tools
(GMT) (https://www.generic-mapping-tools.org/).
Funding
We are grateful to Prof Kenji Satake (University of Tokyo, Japan) for commenting on an early version of this manuscript. GH was supported by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Postdoctoral Fellowship funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2024 Research and Innovation Program, under Grant Agreement No. 101205704. We acknowledge the University of Bath Institutional Open Access Fund. MH was funded by The Great Britain Sasakawa Foundation (GBSF) grant number 6217 (year 2022) and Hydro-Coast Consulting Engineers Ltd. (https://www.hydro-coast.com/). MC was funded by Chile's Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnologico, ´ FONDECYT Project No 1231735.
Keywords
- Hydrodynamics
- Numerical modelling
- Pacific ocean
- Source characteristics
- The 2025 Kamchatka earthquake
- Tsunami
- Tsunamigenic factors
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Oceanography
- Computer Science (miscellaneous)
- Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
- Atmospheric Science
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