Prospect of Increased Disruption to the QBO in a Changing Climate

James A. Anstey; Timothy P. Banyard; Neal Butchart; Lawrence Coy; Paul A. Newman; Scott Osprey; Corwin J. Wright

doi:10.1029/2021GL093058

Prospect of Increased Disruption to the QBO in a Changing Climate

James A. Anstey, Timothy P. Banyard, Neal Butchart, Lawrence Coy, Paul A. Newman, Scott Osprey, Corwin J. Wright

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Abstract

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical stratospheric winds was disrupted during the 2019/20 Northern Hemisphere winter. We show that this latest disruption to the regular QBO cycling was similar in many respects to that seen in 2016, but initiated by horizontal momentum transport from the Southern Hemisphere. The predictable signal associated with the QBO's quasi-regular phase progression is lost during disruptions and the oscillation reemerges after a few months significantly shifted in phase from what would be expected if it had progressed uninterrupted. We infer from an increased wave-momentum flux into equatorial latitudes seen in climate model projections that disruptions to the QBO are likely to become more common in future. Consequently, it is possible that in the future, the QBO could be a less reliable source of predictability on lead times extending out to several years than it currently is.

Original language	English
Article number	e2021GL093058
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	48
Issue number	15
Early online date	26 Jun 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093058
Publication status	Published - 5 Aug 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Neal Butchart was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Programme funded by BEIS and Defra and the UK‐China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund. Lawrence Coy was supported by the NASA Modeling and Analysis Program. Paul A. Newman was supported by the NASA Atmospheric Composition Modeling and Analysis Program. Scott Osprey was supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and UK NERC (NE/P006779/1, NE/N018001/1). Corwin J. Wright was funded by the Royal Society, University Research Fellowship (UF160545). Timothy P. Banyard was funded by an EPSRC Doctoral Training Account. The authors thank Adam Scaife for updating us on the UK Met Office Seasonal Forecasts for the 2019/20 winter, and the authors thank Aaron Match, Tim Dunkerton, and the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped improve the manuscript.

Keywords

climate change
predictability
quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)
stratosphere

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geophysics
General Earth and Planetary Sciences

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1029/2021GL093058Licence: CC BY

Cite this

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abstract = "The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical stratospheric winds was disrupted during the 2019/20 Northern Hemisphere winter. We show that this latest disruption to the regular QBO cycling was similar in many respects to that seen in 2016, but initiated by horizontal momentum transport from the Southern Hemisphere. The predictable signal associated with the QBO's quasi-regular phase progression is lost during disruptions and the oscillation reemerges after a few months significantly shifted in phase from what would be expected if it had progressed uninterrupted. We infer from an increased wave-momentum flux into equatorial latitudes seen in climate model projections that disruptions to the QBO are likely to become more common in future. Consequently, it is possible that in the future, the QBO could be a less reliable source of predictability on lead times extending out to several years than it currently is.",

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N2 - The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical stratospheric winds was disrupted during the 2019/20 Northern Hemisphere winter. We show that this latest disruption to the regular QBO cycling was similar in many respects to that seen in 2016, but initiated by horizontal momentum transport from the Southern Hemisphere. The predictable signal associated with the QBO's quasi-regular phase progression is lost during disruptions and the oscillation reemerges after a few months significantly shifted in phase from what would be expected if it had progressed uninterrupted. We infer from an increased wave-momentum flux into equatorial latitudes seen in climate model projections that disruptions to the QBO are likely to become more common in future. Consequently, it is possible that in the future, the QBO could be a less reliable source of predictability on lead times extending out to several years than it currently is.

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Prospect of Increased Disruption to the QBO in a Changing Climate

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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