Probable Maximum Flood – The Potential for Estimation in the UK using ReFH2

Tracey Haxton; Gianni Vesuviano; Samuel Pucknell; Thomas Kjeldsen

doi:10.2166/nh.2023.117

Probable Maximum Flood – The Potential for Estimation in the UK using ReFH2

Tracey Haxton
, Gianni Vesuviano
, Samuel Pucknell
, Thomas Kjeldsen

Wallingford Hydrosolutions
Centre For Ecology & Hydrology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

2 Citations (SciVal)

321 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The current reservoir safety guidance within the UK recommends the use of the FSR/FEH rainfall-runoff model to estimate PMF (probable maximum flood) peak flows for reservoirs within the highest risk category (A). However, the FSR/FEH model has been superseded by the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model for all other flood risk purposes in the UK. This study develops a new modelling framework for PMF estimation using ReFH2 by translating the assumptions made within the current FSR/FEH PMF procedure and applying these within the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model. Peak flows from the methodology are compared with those from the FSR/FEH model for 400þ catchments. The study highlights the potential for ReFH2 to be used as the rainfall-runoff model for all return periods, up to and including the PMF, thereby paving the way for using the ReFH2 model for reservoir safety studies.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	360-371
Number of pages	12
Journal	Hydrology Research
Volume	54
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2023.117
Publication status	Published - 1 Mar 2023

Bibliographical note

This work was funded by WHS and UKCEH, through reinvestment of FEH Software and FEH Web Service income respectively.

Keywords

FSR/FEH
ReFH
dams
flood estimation
probable maximum flood
reservoirs

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Water Science and Technology

Access to Document

10.2166/nh.2023.117Licence: CC BY-NC-ND

Haxton_T_ReFH2_PMF_Paper_v2Accepted author manuscript, 531 KBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Probable Maximum Flood – The Potential for Estimation in the UK using ReFH2",

abstract = "The current reservoir safety guidance within the UK recommends the use of the FSR/FEH rainfall-runoff model to estimate PMF (probable maximum flood) peak flows for reservoirs within the highest risk category (A). However, the FSR/FEH model has been superseded by the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model for all other flood risk purposes in the UK. This study develops a new modelling framework for PMF estimation using ReFH2 by translating the assumptions made within the current FSR/FEH PMF procedure and applying these within the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model. Peak flows from the methodology are compared with those from the FSR/FEH model for 400{\th} catchments. The study highlights the potential for ReFH2 to be used as the rainfall-runoff model for all return periods, up to and including the PMF, thereby paving the way for using the ReFH2 model for reservoir safety studies.",

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T1 - Probable Maximum Flood – The Potential for Estimation in the UK using ReFH2

AU - Haxton, Tracey

AU - Vesuviano, Gianni

AU - Pucknell, Samuel

AU - Kjeldsen, Thomas

N1 - This work was funded by WHS and UKCEH, through reinvestment of FEH Software and FEH Web Service income respectively.

PY - 2023/3/1

Y1 - 2023/3/1

N2 - The current reservoir safety guidance within the UK recommends the use of the FSR/FEH rainfall-runoff model to estimate PMF (probable maximum flood) peak flows for reservoirs within the highest risk category (A). However, the FSR/FEH model has been superseded by the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model for all other flood risk purposes in the UK. This study develops a new modelling framework for PMF estimation using ReFH2 by translating the assumptions made within the current FSR/FEH PMF procedure and applying these within the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model. Peak flows from the methodology are compared with those from the FSR/FEH model for 400þ catchments. The study highlights the potential for ReFH2 to be used as the rainfall-runoff model for all return periods, up to and including the PMF, thereby paving the way for using the ReFH2 model for reservoir safety studies.

AB - The current reservoir safety guidance within the UK recommends the use of the FSR/FEH rainfall-runoff model to estimate PMF (probable maximum flood) peak flows for reservoirs within the highest risk category (A). However, the FSR/FEH model has been superseded by the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model for all other flood risk purposes in the UK. This study develops a new modelling framework for PMF estimation using ReFH2 by translating the assumptions made within the current FSR/FEH PMF procedure and applying these within the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model. Peak flows from the methodology are compared with those from the FSR/FEH model for 400þ catchments. The study highlights the potential for ReFH2 to be used as the rainfall-runoff model for all return periods, up to and including the PMF, thereby paving the way for using the ReFH2 model for reservoir safety studies.

KW - FSR/FEH

KW - ReFH

KW - dams

KW - flood estimation

KW - probable maximum flood

KW - reservoirs

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85153039212

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DO - 10.2166/nh.2023.117

M3 - Article

SN - 0029-1277

VL - 54

SP - 360

EP - 371

JO - Hydrology Research

JF - Hydrology Research

IS - 3

ER -

Probable Maximum Flood – The Potential for Estimation in the UK using ReFH2

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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