Probable Maximum Flood – The Potential for Estimation in the UK using ReFH2

Tracey Haxton; Gianni Vesuviano; Samuel Pucknell; Thomas Kjeldsen

doi:10.2166/nh.2023.117

Probable Maximum Flood – The Potential for Estimation in the UK using ReFH2

Tracey Haxton, Gianni Vesuviano, Samuel Pucknell, Thomas Kjeldsen

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Abstract

The current reservoir safety guidance within the UK recommends the use of the FSR/FEH rainfall-runoff model to estimate PMF (probable maximum flood) peak flows for reservoirs within the highest risk category (A). However, the FSR/FEH model has been superseded by the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model for all other flood risk purposes in the UK. This study develops a new modelling framework for PMF estimation using ReFH2 by translating the assumptions made within the current FSR/FEH PMF procedure and applying these within the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model. Peak flows from the methodology are compared with those from the FSR/FEH model for 400+ catchments. The study highlights the potential for ReFH2 to be used as the rainfall-runoff model for all return periods, up to and including the PMF, thereby paving the way for using the ReFH2 model for reservoir safety studies.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	360-371
Journal	Hydrology Research
Volume	54
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2023.117
Publication status	Published - 1 Mar 2023

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Haxton_T_ReFH2_PMF_Paper_v2Accepted author manuscript, 531 KBLicence: CC BY

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title = "Probable Maximum Flood – The Potential for Estimation in the UK using ReFH2",

abstract = "The current reservoir safety guidance within the UK recommends the use of the FSR/FEH rainfall-runoff model to estimate PMF (probable maximum flood) peak flows for reservoirs within the highest risk category (A). However, the FSR/FEH model has been superseded by the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model for all other flood risk purposes in the UK. This study develops a new modelling framework for PMF estimation using ReFH2 by translating the assumptions made within the current FSR/FEH PMF procedure and applying these within the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model. Peak flows from the methodology are compared with those from the FSR/FEH model for 400+ catchments. The study highlights the potential for ReFH2 to be used as the rainfall-runoff model for all return periods, up to and including the PMF, thereby paving the way for using the ReFH2 model for reservoir safety studies.",

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AU - Haxton, Tracey

AU - Vesuviano, Gianni

AU - Pucknell, Samuel

AU - Kjeldsen, Thomas

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N2 - The current reservoir safety guidance within the UK recommends the use of the FSR/FEH rainfall-runoff model to estimate PMF (probable maximum flood) peak flows for reservoirs within the highest risk category (A). However, the FSR/FEH model has been superseded by the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model for all other flood risk purposes in the UK. This study develops a new modelling framework for PMF estimation using ReFH2 by translating the assumptions made within the current FSR/FEH PMF procedure and applying these within the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model. Peak flows from the methodology are compared with those from the FSR/FEH model for 400+ catchments. The study highlights the potential for ReFH2 to be used as the rainfall-runoff model for all return periods, up to and including the PMF, thereby paving the way for using the ReFH2 model for reservoir safety studies.

AB - The current reservoir safety guidance within the UK recommends the use of the FSR/FEH rainfall-runoff model to estimate PMF (probable maximum flood) peak flows for reservoirs within the highest risk category (A). However, the FSR/FEH model has been superseded by the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model for all other flood risk purposes in the UK. This study develops a new modelling framework for PMF estimation using ReFH2 by translating the assumptions made within the current FSR/FEH PMF procedure and applying these within the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model. Peak flows from the methodology are compared with those from the FSR/FEH model for 400+ catchments. The study highlights the potential for ReFH2 to be used as the rainfall-runoff model for all return periods, up to and including the PMF, thereby paving the way for using the ReFH2 model for reservoir safety studies.

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DO - 10.2166/nh.2023.117

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Probable Maximum Flood – The Potential for Estimation in the UK using ReFH2

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