Probabilistic Landslide Tsunami Estimation in the Makassar Strait, Indonesia, Using Statistical Emulation

Jack Dignan; Matthew W. Hayward; Dimitra Salmanidou; Mohammad Heidarzadeh; Serge Guillas

doi:10.1029/2023EA002951

Probabilistic Landslide Tsunami Estimation in the Makassar Strait, Indonesia, Using Statistical Emulation

Jack Dignan, Matthew W. Hayward, Dimitra Salmanidou, Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Serge Guillas

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

This paper presents a significant advancement in the understanding of tsunamigenic landslide hazard across the length of the Makassar Strait in Indonesia. We use statistical emulation across the length of the continental slope to conduct a probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazard on a regional scale, across 14 virtual coastal gauges. Focusing on the potential maximum wave amplitudes (distance between the wave crest and the still-water level) from possible tsunamigenic landslide events, we generate predictions from Gaussian Process emulators fitted to input-outputs from 50 training scenarios. We show that the most probable maximum wave amplitudes in the majority of gauges are between 1 and 5 m, with the maximum predicted amplitudes reaching values of up to 10 m on the eastern coast, and up to 50 m on the western coast. We also explore the potential use of Gaussian multivariate copulas to sample emulator prediction input values to create a more realistic distribution of volumes along the continental slope. The novel use of statistical emulation across a whole slope enables the probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazard due to landslides on a regional scale. This area is of key interest to Indonesia since the new capital will be established in the East Kalimantan region on the western side of the Makassar Strait.

Original language	English
Article number	e2023EA002951
Journal	Earth and Space Science
Volume	10
Issue number	8
Early online date	3 Aug 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA002951
Publication status	Published - 31 Aug 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
JD was supported by a Studentship from the London Natural Environment Research Council DTP (Grant NE/S007229/1). We acknowledge funding from the Lloyd's Tercentenary Research Foundation, the Lighthill Risk Network, and the Lloyd's Register Foundation‐Data Centric Engineering Programme of the Alan Turing Institute. MH was partly funded by the Royal Society, the United Kingdom, Grant CHL/R1/180173. Geospatial figures were created using The Generic Mapping Tools version 6 Wessel et al. ( 2019 ). The authors acknowledge Dr Ramtin Sabeti (University of Bath, UK) and one anonymous reviewer for their constructive and detailed comments which have greatly improved the quality of this work.

Funding Information:
JD was supported by a Studentship from the London Natural Environment Research Council DTP (Grant NE/S007229/1). We acknowledge funding from the Lloyd's Tercentenary Research Foundation, the Lighthill Risk Network, and the Lloyd's Register Foundation-Data Centric Engineering Programme of the Alan Turing Institute. MH was partly funded by the Royal Society, the United Kingdom, Grant CHL/R1/180173. Geospatial figures were created using The Generic Mapping Tools version 6 Wessel et al. (2019). The authors acknowledge Dr Ramtin Sabeti (University of Bath, UK) and one anonymous reviewer for their constructive and detailed comments which have greatly improved the quality of this work.

Keywords

Gaussian process emulation
Makassar Strait
probabilistic hazard assessment
tsunami
tsunamigenic landslide

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
General Earth and Planetary Sciences

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10.1029/2023EA002951Licence: CC BY

Cite this

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abstract = "This paper presents a significant advancement in the understanding of tsunamigenic landslide hazard across the length of the Makassar Strait in Indonesia. We use statistical emulation across the length of the continental slope to conduct a probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazard on a regional scale, across 14 virtual coastal gauges. Focusing on the potential maximum wave amplitudes (distance between the wave crest and the still-water level) from possible tsunamigenic landslide events, we generate predictions from Gaussian Process emulators fitted to input-outputs from 50 training scenarios. We show that the most probable maximum wave amplitudes in the majority of gauges are between 1 and 5 m, with the maximum predicted amplitudes reaching values of up to 10 m on the eastern coast, and up to 50 m on the western coast. We also explore the potential use of Gaussian multivariate copulas to sample emulator prediction input values to create a more realistic distribution of volumes along the continental slope. The novel use of statistical emulation across a whole slope enables the probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazard due to landslides on a regional scale. This area is of key interest to Indonesia since the new capital will be established in the East Kalimantan region on the western side of the Makassar Strait.",

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N2 - This paper presents a significant advancement in the understanding of tsunamigenic landslide hazard across the length of the Makassar Strait in Indonesia. We use statistical emulation across the length of the continental slope to conduct a probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazard on a regional scale, across 14 virtual coastal gauges. Focusing on the potential maximum wave amplitudes (distance between the wave crest and the still-water level) from possible tsunamigenic landslide events, we generate predictions from Gaussian Process emulators fitted to input-outputs from 50 training scenarios. We show that the most probable maximum wave amplitudes in the majority of gauges are between 1 and 5 m, with the maximum predicted amplitudes reaching values of up to 10 m on the eastern coast, and up to 50 m on the western coast. We also explore the potential use of Gaussian multivariate copulas to sample emulator prediction input values to create a more realistic distribution of volumes along the continental slope. The novel use of statistical emulation across a whole slope enables the probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazard due to landslides on a regional scale. This area is of key interest to Indonesia since the new capital will be established in the East Kalimantan region on the western side of the Makassar Strait.

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Probabilistic Landslide Tsunami Estimation in the Makassar Strait, Indonesia, Using Statistical Emulation

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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