Probabilistic impact assessment of phase power imbalance in the LV networks with increasing penetrations of low carbon technologies

Phase imbalances cause a range of network issue, from day-to-day energy losses to long-run capacity wastes that increase investment costs. The impact on low voltage (LV) network from phase imbalance has been investigated independently for losses and investment. However, no research was carried out on the total imbalance-induced cost (TIC) that includes both day-to-day energy losses and long-run capacity wastes, and how the relationship between the two may change with the increasing penetrations of single-phase low carbon technologies (LCTs). Analyzing the TIC is important for distribution network operators (DNOs) as the day-to-day energy loss cost cannot be ignored as it may exceed the long-run network investment cost. This paper develops a new probabilistic framework to investigate the impact of increasing LCT penetration on TIC in the UK's LV distribution networks. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to account for the uncertainties in LCT sizes, connection locations and connection time. Case studies show that the additional energy loss cost exceeds the additional reinforcement cost in urban networks when the LCT penetration level reaches 70%. The key findings will help the DNOs understand the range of TIC and the relationship between imbalance-induced energy losses and capacity wastes under increasing LCT penetrations.