Predicting future UK housing stock and carbon emissions

Sukumar Natarajan, G J Levermore

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

57 Citations (SciVal)


This paper presents a novel method for exploring future transformations in the UK housing stock. The method is shown to be more robust and faster than existing methods through various tests. A Java-based implementation of the method in a new model of the UK housing stock, DECarb, is examined using a back-cast scenario from 1970 to 1996. The results show an average difference of −5.4% between predicted and actual energy demand. Comparison with predicted carbon emissions from the BRE's BREHOMES model shows a difference of around −0.9% for the same period. These results suggest that DECarb is likely to be an effective tool in examining future scenarios since the same objects and processes used in back-casting in the model are also used in forecasting. The model has an open framework and could therefore significantly benefit ongoing domestic and non-domestic climate futures research.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)5719-5727
Number of pages9
JournalEnergy Policy
Issue number11
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2007


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