Abstract
Background: The United Kingdom Soft Drinks Industry Levy was introduced in April 2018, resulting both in changes
in sugar levels in drinks and purchases of drinks. Both mechanisms could impact on the incidence and prevalence of
raised body weight, diabetes and diet-related diseases, and therefore, have implications for economic costs to the
health sector.
Objectives: To model future impacts of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy on population health and health sector costs
and to estimate net monetary benefit to the health system.
Design and methods: Proportional multistate lifetable modelling study – open and closed cohort analyses.
Setting and population: All children and adults in the United Kingdom.
Intervention: The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a two-tier levy of £0.18/l on drinks with between 5 and 8 g of total
sugars/100 ml and of £0.24/l on drinks with ≥ 8 g of total sugars/100 ml.
Main outcome measures: We evaluated impact of the sugar reduction on: (1) prevalence of overweight and obesity,
obesity-related diseases and dental health out to 2050 and (2) lifetime population health (measured in qualityadjusted
life-years), change in costs to the health sector and the resulting net monetary benefit.
Data sources: We estimated a per person reduction in sugar from a previously published interrupted time series
analysis, which found an 8.0 g/household/week (95% confidence interval 2.4 to 13.6) reduction in sugar at 1 year
after implementation. Our multistate lifetable model is parameterised using data from population health monitoring
surveys, the Global Burden of Disease project, the Human Mortality Database and the Office for National Statistics.
Health sector costs were obtained from Department of Health and Social Care budget allocations.
in sugar levels in drinks and purchases of drinks. Both mechanisms could impact on the incidence and prevalence of
raised body weight, diabetes and diet-related diseases, and therefore, have implications for economic costs to the
health sector.
Objectives: To model future impacts of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy on population health and health sector costs
and to estimate net monetary benefit to the health system.
Design and methods: Proportional multistate lifetable modelling study – open and closed cohort analyses.
Setting and population: All children and adults in the United Kingdom.
Intervention: The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a two-tier levy of £0.18/l on drinks with between 5 and 8 g of total
sugars/100 ml and of £0.24/l on drinks with ≥ 8 g of total sugars/100 ml.
Main outcome measures: We evaluated impact of the sugar reduction on: (1) prevalence of overweight and obesity,
obesity-related diseases and dental health out to 2050 and (2) lifetime population health (measured in qualityadjusted
life-years), change in costs to the health sector and the resulting net monetary benefit.
Data sources: We estimated a per person reduction in sugar from a previously published interrupted time series
analysis, which found an 8.0 g/household/week (95% confidence interval 2.4 to 13.6) reduction in sugar at 1 year
after implementation. Our multistate lifetable model is parameterised using data from population health monitoring
surveys, the Global Burden of Disease project, the Human Mortality Database and the Office for National Statistics.
Health sector costs were obtained from Department of Health and Social Care budget allocations.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Number of pages | 18 |
| Journal | Public Health Research |
| Volume | xx |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 10 Dec 2025 |
Data Availability Statement
All data used to support the PRIMEtime model and the analysesconducted in this paper are available in the public domain, some
with licensed agreements from relevant data archives (e.g. the
UK Data Archive: www.data-archive.ac.uk/).
Funding
This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme as award number 16/130/01.
