Abstract
The international community increasingly promotes referendums as it intervenes in self-determination conflicts around the world. However, the ability of self-determination referendums to bring about peace remains uncertain. This paper develops the argument that the conflict resolution potential of self-determination referendums is conditional, depending on whether or not they are held under the mutual agreement of the relevant minority and majority groups. When mutually agreed, self-determination referendums are likely to generate shared perceptions of fair decision-making and thereby increase chances for peace. By contrast, unilateral self-determination referendums are likely to increase ethnic grievances and, therefore, the risk of separatist violence. I find support for this argument in a global statistical analysis, short case studies, and a survey experiment. Overall, this study suggests that self-determination referendums can make a positive contribution to peace, but only if the conditions for a partial compromise on a referendum, including its terms, are ripe.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 403 - 423 |
| Number of pages | 21 |
| Journal | European Political Science Review |
| Volume | 14 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| Early online date | 16 May 2022 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 16 Aug 2022 |
Keywords
- civil war
- ethno-nationalism
- procedural fairness
- referendums
- self-determination
- separatism
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Sociology and Political Science
- Political Science and International Relations
Access to Document
- Germann_PaxPopuli_final.PDF
This article has been published in European Political Science Review [http://doi.org/10.1017/S1755773922000169]. This version is free to view and download for private research and study only. Not for re-distribution, re-sale or use in derivative works. © The Authors, 2022.