Pax populi?: An analysis of the conflict resolution potential of referendums on self-determination

Micha Germann

doi:10.1017/S1755773922000169

Pax populi? An analysis of the conflict resolution potential of referendums on self-determination

Micha Germann

Politics, Languages & International Studies

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Citations (SciVal)

140 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The international community increasingly promotes referendums as it intervenes in self-determination conflicts around the world. However, the ability of self-determination referendums to bring about peace remains uncertain. This paper develops the argument that the conflict resolution potential of self-determination referendums is conditional, depending on whether or not they are held under the mutual agreement of the relevant minority and majority groups. When mutually agreed, self-determination referendums are likely to generate shared perceptions of fair decision-making and thereby increase chances for peace. By contrast, unilateral self-determination referendums are likely to increase ethnic grievances and, therefore, the risk of separatist violence. I find support for this argument in a global statistical analysis, short case studies, and a survey experiment. Overall, this study suggests that self-determination referendums can make a positive contribution to peace, but only if the conditions for a partial compromise on a referendum, including its terms, are ripe.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	403 - 423
Number of pages	21
Journal	European Political Science Review
Volume	14
Issue number	3
Early online date	16 May 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755773922000169
Publication status	Published - 16 Aug 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the 2015 APSA Annual Meeting, the 2019 IPSA Joint Colloquium, the 2020 SPSA Annual Congress, an online conference organized by the European Centre for Minority Issues in 2021, and seminars at the Catholic University of Lublin and the University of Zurich. I would like to thank all conference and seminar participants for helpful comments and suggestions and, in particular, Daniel Bochsler, Lars-Erik Cederman, Kanchan Chandra, Anja Giudici, Dominik Hangartner, Simon Hug, Marcin Kosienkowski, Fernando Mendez, Brendan O’Leary, Matt Qvortrup, Nicholas Sambanis, Uwe Serdült, Marco Steenbergen, Jonathan Wheatley, Julian Wucherpfennig, as well as three anonymous reviewers and the editors of this journal. I gratefully acknowledge funding by the Swiss National Science Foundation (135127 and 162220) and the Economic and Social Research Council (ES/W000598/1). The experimental study was approved by the University of Bath’s Social Science Research Ethics Committee (S19-076). Replication files can be found at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/UAVN8Q

Keywords

civil war
ethno-nationalism
procedural fairness
referendums
self-determination
separatism

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Sociology and Political Science
Political Science and International Relations

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1017/S1755773922000169

Pax populi? (accepted author manuscript)
Accepted author manuscript. This article has been published in European Political Science Review: http://doi.org/10.1017/S1755773922000169. This version is free to view and download for private research and study only. Not for re-distribution, re-sale or use in derivative works. © The Authors, 2022.
Accepted author manuscript, 525 KBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

Cite this

@article{c0cd682d066b49308b2deb835ada53bd,

title = "Pax populi?: An analysis of the conflict resolution potential of referendums on self-determination",

abstract = "The international community increasingly promotes referendums as it intervenes in self-determination conflicts around the world. However, the ability of self-determination referendums to bring about peace remains uncertain. This paper develops the argument that the conflict resolution potential of self-determination referendums is conditional, depending on whether or not they are held under the mutual agreement of the relevant minority and majority groups. When mutually agreed, self-determination referendums are likely to generate shared perceptions of fair decision-making and thereby increase chances for peace. By contrast, unilateral self-determination referendums are likely to increase ethnic grievances and, therefore, the risk of separatist violence. I find support for this argument in a global statistical analysis, short case studies, and a survey experiment. Overall, this study suggests that self-determination referendums can make a positive contribution to peace, but only if the conditions for a partial compromise on a referendum, including its terms, are ripe.",

keywords = "civil war, ethno-nationalism, procedural fairness, referendums, self-determination, separatism",

author = "Micha Germann",

note = "Funding Information: Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the 2015 APSA Annual Meeting, the 2019 IPSA Joint Colloquium, the 2020 SPSA Annual Congress, an online conference organized by the European Centre for Minority Issues in 2021, and seminars at the Catholic University of Lublin and the University of Zurich. I would like to thank all conference and seminar participants for helpful comments and suggestions and, in particular, Daniel Bochsler, Lars-Erik Cederman, Kanchan Chandra, Anja Giudici, Dominik Hangartner, Simon Hug, Marcin Kosienkowski, Fernando Mendez, Brendan O{\textquoteright}Leary, Matt Qvortrup, Nicholas Sambanis, Uwe Serd{\"u}lt, Marco Steenbergen, Jonathan Wheatley, Julian Wucherpfennig, as well as three anonymous reviewers and the editors of this journal. I gratefully acknowledge funding by the Swiss National Science Foundation (135127 and 162220) and the Economic and Social Research Council (ES/W000598/1). The experimental study was approved by the University of Bath{\textquoteright}s Social Science Research Ethics Committee (S19-076). Replication files can be found at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/UAVN8Q",

year = "2022",

month = aug,

day = "16",

doi = "10.1017/S1755773922000169",

language = "English",

volume = "14",

pages = "403 -- 423",

journal = "European Political Science Review",

issn = "1755-7739",

publisher = "Cambridge University Press",

number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Pax populi?

T2 - An analysis of the conflict resolution potential of referendums on self-determination

AU - Germann, Micha

N1 - Funding Information: Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the 2015 APSA Annual Meeting, the 2019 IPSA Joint Colloquium, the 2020 SPSA Annual Congress, an online conference organized by the European Centre for Minority Issues in 2021, and seminars at the Catholic University of Lublin and the University of Zurich. I would like to thank all conference and seminar participants for helpful comments and suggestions and, in particular, Daniel Bochsler, Lars-Erik Cederman, Kanchan Chandra, Anja Giudici, Dominik Hangartner, Simon Hug, Marcin Kosienkowski, Fernando Mendez, Brendan O’Leary, Matt Qvortrup, Nicholas Sambanis, Uwe Serdült, Marco Steenbergen, Jonathan Wheatley, Julian Wucherpfennig, as well as three anonymous reviewers and the editors of this journal. I gratefully acknowledge funding by the Swiss National Science Foundation (135127 and 162220) and the Economic and Social Research Council (ES/W000598/1). The experimental study was approved by the University of Bath’s Social Science Research Ethics Committee (S19-076). Replication files can be found at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/UAVN8Q

PY - 2022/8/16

Y1 - 2022/8/16

N2 - The international community increasingly promotes referendums as it intervenes in self-determination conflicts around the world. However, the ability of self-determination referendums to bring about peace remains uncertain. This paper develops the argument that the conflict resolution potential of self-determination referendums is conditional, depending on whether or not they are held under the mutual agreement of the relevant minority and majority groups. When mutually agreed, self-determination referendums are likely to generate shared perceptions of fair decision-making and thereby increase chances for peace. By contrast, unilateral self-determination referendums are likely to increase ethnic grievances and, therefore, the risk of separatist violence. I find support for this argument in a global statistical analysis, short case studies, and a survey experiment. Overall, this study suggests that self-determination referendums can make a positive contribution to peace, but only if the conditions for a partial compromise on a referendum, including its terms, are ripe.

AB - The international community increasingly promotes referendums as it intervenes in self-determination conflicts around the world. However, the ability of self-determination referendums to bring about peace remains uncertain. This paper develops the argument that the conflict resolution potential of self-determination referendums is conditional, depending on whether or not they are held under the mutual agreement of the relevant minority and majority groups. When mutually agreed, self-determination referendums are likely to generate shared perceptions of fair decision-making and thereby increase chances for peace. By contrast, unilateral self-determination referendums are likely to increase ethnic grievances and, therefore, the risk of separatist violence. I find support for this argument in a global statistical analysis, short case studies, and a survey experiment. Overall, this study suggests that self-determination referendums can make a positive contribution to peace, but only if the conditions for a partial compromise on a referendum, including its terms, are ripe.

KW - civil war

KW - ethno-nationalism

KW - procedural fairness

KW - referendums

KW - self-determination

KW - separatism

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85134906926&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1017/S1755773922000169

DO - 10.1017/S1755773922000169

M3 - Article

SN - 1755-7739

VL - 14

SP - 403

EP - 423

JO - European Political Science Review

JF - European Political Science Review

IS - 3

ER -

Pax populi? An analysis of the conflict resolution potential of referendums on self-determination

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Nonviolent Repression and the Escalation of Conflicts over Self-Determination (NRECS)

Cite this

Pax populi? An analysis of the conflict resolution potential of referendums on self-determination

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Projects

Nonviolent Repression and the Escalation of Conflicts over Self-Determination (NRECS)

Cite this