Abstract
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 67-73 |
| Number of pages | 7 |
| Journal | Journal of Theoretical Biology |
| Volume | 351 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 21 Jun 2014 |
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Partial cross-enhancement in models for dengue epidemiology. / Woodall, Hannah; Adams, Ben.
In: Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol. 351, 21.06.2014, p. 67-73.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Partial cross-enhancement in models for dengue epidemiology
AU - Woodall, Hannah
AU - Adams, Ben
PY - 2014/6/21
Y1 - 2014/6/21
N2 - Four distinct serotypes of dengue virus co-circulate in many parts of the world. Antibodies to one serotype prevent infection with the homologous serotype, but may enhance infections with heterologous serotypes. Enhanced secondary infections have been implicated in the majority of severe cases, termed dengue hemorrhagic fever. Conventionally, mathematical models assume that all heterologous secondary infections are subject to enhanced susceptibility or transmissibility. However, empirical data show that only a minority of secondary infections lead to severe disease, which suggests that only a minority of secondary infections are subject to enhancement. We present a new modelling framework in which the population susceptible to secondary infection is split into a group prone to enhanced infection and a group with some degree of cross-protection. We use this framework to re-evaluate the role of enhanced infections in several well known dengue models that exhibit multi-annual epidemiological oscillations. We show that enhancement is unlikely to be driving such oscillations but may be modifying the effects of other drivers.
AB - Four distinct serotypes of dengue virus co-circulate in many parts of the world. Antibodies to one serotype prevent infection with the homologous serotype, but may enhance infections with heterologous serotypes. Enhanced secondary infections have been implicated in the majority of severe cases, termed dengue hemorrhagic fever. Conventionally, mathematical models assume that all heterologous secondary infections are subject to enhanced susceptibility or transmissibility. However, empirical data show that only a minority of secondary infections lead to severe disease, which suggests that only a minority of secondary infections are subject to enhancement. We present a new modelling framework in which the population susceptible to secondary infection is split into a group prone to enhanced infection and a group with some degree of cross-protection. We use this framework to re-evaluate the role of enhanced infections in several well known dengue models that exhibit multi-annual epidemiological oscillations. We show that enhancement is unlikely to be driving such oscillations but may be modifying the effects of other drivers.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84896324827&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.02.016
U2 - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.02.016
DO - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.02.016
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84896324827
VL - 351
SP - 67
EP - 73
JO - Journal of Theoretical Biology
JF - Journal of Theoretical Biology
SN - 0022-5193
ER -