Optimal Temporal Resolution of Rainfall for Urban Applications and Uncertainty Propagation

Francesca Cecinati, Arie C. de Niet, Kasia Sawicka, Miguel A. Rico-Ramirez

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

16 Citations (SciVal)

Abstract

The optimal temporal resolution for rainfall applications in urban hydrological models depends on different factors. Accumulations are often used to reduce uncertainty, while a sufficiently fine resolution is needed to capture the variability of the urban hydrological processes. Merging radar and rain gauge rainfall is recognized to improve the estimation accuracy. This work explores the possibility to merge radar and rain gauge rainfall at coarser temporal resolutions to reduce uncertainty, and to downscale the results. A case study in the UK is used to cross-validate the methodology. Rainfall estimates merged and downscaled at different resolutions are compared. As expected, coarser resolutions tend to reduce uncertainty in terms of rainfall estimation. Additionally, an example of urban application in Twenterand, the Netherlands, is presented. The rainfall data from four rain gauge networks are merged with radar composites and used in an InfoWorks model reproducing the urban drainage system of Vroomshoop, a village in Twenterand. Fourteen combinations of accumulation and downscaling resolutions are tested in the InfoWorks model and the optimal is selected comparing the results to water level observations. The uncertainty is propagated in the InfoWorks model with ensembles. The results show that the uncertainty estimated by the ensemble spread is proportional to the rainfall intensity and dependent on the relative position between rainfall cells and measurement points.

Original languageEnglish
Article number762
JournalWater (Switzerland)
Volume9
Issue number10
Early online date4 Oct 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2017

Funding

Acknowledgments: This work was carried out in the framework of the Marie Skłodowska Curie Initial Training Network QUICS. The QUICS project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No. 607000. M.A. Rico-Ramirez acknowledges the support of the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) via Grant EP/I012222/1. The authors would like to thank the KNMI, the Municipality of Twenterand, and Het Weer Actueel, which provided the radar rainfall data, the rain gauge data, and the water level data to develop this study. KNMI hourly rain gauge data, KNMI daily rain gauge data, KNMI 5-minute radar data (free research access available upon request at [email protected]) and Het Weer Actueel data are available upon request at [51–54]. The data we obtained from the municipality of Twenterand are restricted and were obtained by signing a confidentiality agreement. Please contact (Arie de Niet at [email protected]—[55]) for more information. Special thanks are also given to Erik Dekker, from Witteveen+Bos, for the contribution in the data pre-processing and in the Inforworks model setup, and to Prof. Gerard Heuvelink, from Wageningen University, for the geo-statistics support. The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for the constructive criticism and the precious advice.

Keywords

  • Kriging with External Drift
  • radar-rain gauge merging
  • rain gauge random error model
  • rainfall ensembles
  • rainfall temporal downscaling
  • uncertainty propagation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Biochemistry
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Aquatic Science
  • Water Science and Technology

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