On reconciling macro and micro energy transport forecasts for strategic decision making in the tanker industry

We propose the use of hierarchical structures for forecasting freight earnings. Hierarchical time series approaches are applied in the dry-bulk and tanker markets to identify the most suitable strategy for forecasting freight rates. We argue that decision making for shipping practitioners should be based on forecasts of freight earnings at different hierarchical levels. In other words, different strategic shipping decisions such as operations management, choice of freight charter contract and type of investment should be matched with the appropriate level of forecasts of freight earnings that are aggregated at different macro-levels: operating route, vessel size and type of trade.