Projects per year
Abstract
The intermittency of wind generation creates nonlinear uncertainties in wind power forecasting (WPF). Thus, additional operating costs can be incurred for balancing these forecasting deviations. Normally, large wind power penetration requires accurate quantification of the uncertainty-induced costs. This paper defines this type of costs as wind power uncertainty incremental cost (WPUIC) and wind power uncertainty dispatch cost (WPUDC), and it then formulates a general methodology for deriving them based on probabilistic forecasting of wind power. WPUIC quantifies the incremental cost induced from balancing the uncertainties of wind power generation. WPUDC is a balancing cost function with a quadratic form considering diverse external conditions. Besides, the risk probability (RP) of not meeting the scheduled obligation is also modelled. Above models are established based on a newly developed probabilistic forecasting model, varying variance relevance vector machine (VVRVM). Demonstration results show that the VVRVM and RP provide accurate representation of WPF uncertainties and corresponding risk, and thus they can better support and validate the modelling of WPUDC and WPUIC. The proposed cost models have the potential to easily extend traditional dispatches to a new low-carbon system with a high penetration of renewables.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 7740004 |
Pages (from-to) | 318-329 |
Number of pages | 12 |
Journal | IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion |
Volume | 32 |
Issue number | 1 |
Early online date | 9 Nov 2016 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 31 Mar 2017 |
Keywords
- Economic dispatch
- forecasting uncertainty
- incremental cost
- uncertainty cost
- wind power forecasting
- Wind power generation
Fingerprint
Dive into the research topics of 'Novel cost model for balancing wind power forecasting uncertainty'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.Projects
- 4 Finished
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Peer-to-Peer Energy Trading and Sharing - 3M (Multi-times, Multi-scales, Multi-qualities)
Li, F., Jeon, J. & Li, R.
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
1/09/16 → 29/02/20
Project: Research council
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Fellowship - Multi-Vector Energy Distribution System Modelling and Optimisation with Integrated Demand Side Response
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
1/09/14 → 31/08/17
Project: Research council
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High Energy and Power Density (HEAPD) Solutions to Large Energy Deficits
Li, F., Redfern, M. & Walker, I.
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
30/06/14 → 29/12/17
Project: Research council
Profiles
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Chenghong Gu
- Department of Electronic & Electrical Engineering - Reader
- Centre for Sustainable Energy Systems (SES)
Person: Research & Teaching, Core staff
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Furong Li
- Department of Electronic & Electrical Engineering - Professor
- Centre for Doctoral Training in Decarbonisation of the Built Environment (dCarb)
- Centre for Sustainable Energy Systems (SES)
Person: Research & Teaching, Core staff