TY - JOUR
T1 - Multi-level emulation of tsunami simulations over Cilacap, South Java, Indonesia
AU - Ehara, Ayao
AU - Salmanidou, Dimitra M.
AU - Heidarzadeh, Mohammad
AU - Guillas, Serge
N1 - Funding Information:
We acknowledge funding from the Lloyd’s Tercentenary Research Foundation, the Lighthill Risk Network and the Lloyd’s Register Foundation-Data Centric Engineering Programme of the Alan Turing Institute. We also acknowledge support from the Alan Turing Institute project “Uncertainty Quantification of multi-scale and multiphysics computer models: applications to hazard and climate models” as part of the grant EP/N510129/1 made to the Alan Turing Institute by EPSRC, and the EPSRC project EP/W007711/1 ”Software Environment for Actionable & VVUQ-evaluated Exascale Applications” (SEAVEA). MH was partly funded by the Royal Society, the United Kingdom, grant number CHL/R1/180173.
PY - 2023/2/28
Y1 - 2023/2/28
N2 - Carrying out a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) requires a large number of simulations done at a high resolution. Statistical emulation builds a surrogate to replace the simulator and thus reduces computational costs when propagating uncertainties from the earthquake sources to the tsunami inundations. To reduce further these costs, we propose here to build emulators that exploit multiple levels of resolution and a sequential design of computer experiments. By running a few tsunami simulations at high resolution and many more simulations at lower resolutions we are able to provide realistic assessments whereas, for the same budget, using only the high resolution tsunami simulations do not provide a satisfactory outcome. As a result, PTHA can be considered with higher precision using the highest spatial resolutions, and for impacts over larger regions. We provide an illustration to the city of Cilacap in Indonesia that demonstrates the benefit of our approach.
AB - Carrying out a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) requires a large number of simulations done at a high resolution. Statistical emulation builds a surrogate to replace the simulator and thus reduces computational costs when propagating uncertainties from the earthquake sources to the tsunami inundations. To reduce further these costs, we propose here to build emulators that exploit multiple levels of resolution and a sequential design of computer experiments. By running a few tsunami simulations at high resolution and many more simulations at lower resolutions we are able to provide realistic assessments whereas, for the same budget, using only the high resolution tsunami simulations do not provide a satisfactory outcome. As a result, PTHA can be considered with higher precision using the highest spatial resolutions, and for impacts over larger regions. We provide an illustration to the city of Cilacap in Indonesia that demonstrates the benefit of our approach.
KW - Emulation
KW - Experimental design
KW - Gaussian process
KW - Hazard assessment
KW - Multi-fidelity
KW - Uncertainty propagation
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85144406976&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10596-022-10183-1
DO - 10.1007/s10596-022-10183-1
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85144406976
VL - 27
SP - 127
EP - 142
JO - Computational Geosciences
JF - Computational Geosciences
SN - 1420-0597
IS - 1
ER -