Multi-level emulation of tsunami simulations over Cilacap, South Java, Indonesia

Ayao Ehara, Dimitra M. Salmanidou, Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Serge Guillas

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Carrying out a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) requires a large number of simulations done at a high resolution. Statistical emulation builds a surrogate to replace the simulator and thus reduces computational costs when propagating uncertainties from the earthquake sources to the tsunami inundations. To reduce further these costs, we propose here to build emulators that exploit multiple levels of resolution and a sequential design of computer experiments. By running a few tsunami simulations at high resolution and many more simulations at lower resolutions we are able to provide realistic assessments whereas, for the same budget, using only the high resolution tsunami simulations do not provide a satisfactory outcome. As a result, PTHA can be considered with higher precision using the highest spatial resolutions, and for impacts over larger regions. We provide an illustration to the city of Cilacap in Indonesia that demonstrates the benefit of our approach.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)127-142
Number of pages16
JournalComputational Geosciences
Issue number1
Early online date21 Dec 2022
Publication statusPublished - 28 Feb 2023


  • Emulation
  • Experimental design
  • Gaussian process
  • Hazard assessment
  • Multi-fidelity
  • Uncertainty propagation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Science Applications
  • Computers in Earth Sciences
  • Computational Theory and Mathematics
  • Computational Mathematics


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