Multi-level emulation of tsunami simulations over Cilacap, South Java, Indonesia

Ayao Ehara, Dimitra M. Salmanidou, Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Serge Guillas

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Abstract

Carrying out a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) requires a large number of simulations done at a high resolution. Statistical emulation builds a surrogate to replace the simulator and thus reduces computational costs when propagating uncertainties from the earthquake sources to the tsunami inundations. To reduce further these costs, we propose here to build emulators that exploit multiple levels of resolution and a sequential design of computer experiments. By running a few tsunami simulations at high resolution and many more simulations at lower resolutions we are able to provide realistic assessments whereas, for the same budget, using only the high resolution tsunami simulations do not provide a satisfactory outcome. As a result, PTHA can be considered with higher precision using the highest spatial resolutions, and for impacts over larger regions. We provide an illustration to the city of Cilacap in Indonesia that demonstrates the benefit of our approach.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)127-142
Number of pages16
JournalComputational Geosciences
Volume27
Issue number1
Early online date21 Dec 2022
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 28 Feb 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We acknowledge funding from the Lloyd’s Tercentenary Research Foundation, the Lighthill Risk Network and the Lloyd’s Register Foundation-Data Centric Engineering Programme of the Alan Turing Institute. We also acknowledge support from the Alan Turing Institute project “Uncertainty Quantification of multi-scale and multiphysics computer models: applications to hazard and climate models” as part of the grant EP/N510129/1 made to the Alan Turing Institute by EPSRC, and the EPSRC project EP/W007711/1 ”Software Environment for Actionable & VVUQ-evaluated Exascale Applications” (SEAVEA). MH was partly funded by the Royal Society, the United Kingdom, grant number CHL/R1/180173.

Keywords

  • Emulation
  • Experimental design
  • Gaussian process
  • Hazard assessment
  • Multi-fidelity
  • Uncertainty propagation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Science Applications
  • Computers in Earth Sciences
  • Computational Theory and Mathematics
  • Computational Mathematics

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