Multi-level emulation of tsunami simulations over Cilacap, South Java, Indonesia

Ayao Ehara; Dimitra M. Salmanidou; Mohammad Heidarzadeh; Serge Guillas

doi:10.1007/s10596-022-10183-1

Multi-level emulation of tsunami simulations over Cilacap, South Java, Indonesia

Ayao Ehara, Dimitra M. Salmanidou, Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Serge Guillas

University College London

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

Carrying out a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) requires a large number of simulations done at a high resolution. Statistical emulation builds a surrogate to replace the simulator and thus reduces computational costs when propagating uncertainties from the earthquake sources to the tsunami inundations. To reduce further these costs, we propose here to build emulators that exploit multiple levels of resolution and a sequential design of computer experiments. By running a few tsunami simulations at high resolution and many more simulations at lower resolutions we are able to provide realistic assessments whereas, for the same budget, using only the high resolution tsunami simulations do not provide a satisfactory outcome. As a result, PTHA can be considered with higher precision using the highest spatial resolutions, and for impacts over larger regions. We provide an illustration to the city of Cilacap in Indonesia that demonstrates the benefit of our approach.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	127-142
Number of pages	16
Journal	Computational Geosciences
Volume	27
Issue number	1
Early online date	21 Dec 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10596-022-10183-1
Publication status	Published - 28 Feb 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We acknowledge funding from the Lloyd’s Tercentenary Research Foundation, the Lighthill Risk Network and the Lloyd’s Register Foundation-Data Centric Engineering Programme of the Alan Turing Institute. We also acknowledge support from the Alan Turing Institute project “Uncertainty Quantification of multi-scale and multiphysics computer models: applications to hazard and climate models” as part of the grant EP/N510129/1 made to the Alan Turing Institute by EPSRC, and the EPSRC project EP/W007711/1 ”Software Environment for Actionable & VVUQ-evaluated Exascale Applications” (SEAVEA). MH was partly funded by the Royal Society, the United Kingdom, grant number CHL/R1/180173.

Funding

We acknowledge funding from the Lloyd’s Tercentenary Research Foundation, the Lighthill Risk Network and the Lloyd’s Register Foundation-Data Centric Engineering Programme of the Alan Turing Institute. We also acknowledge support from the Alan Turing Institute project “Uncertainty Quantification of multi-scale and multiphysics computer models: applications to hazard and climate models” as part of the grant EP/N510129/1 made to the Alan Turing Institute by EPSRC, and the EPSRC project EP/W007711/1 ”Software Environment for Actionable & VVUQ-evaluated Exascale Applications” (SEAVEA). MH was partly funded by the Royal Society, the United Kingdom, grant number CHL/R1/180173.

Keywords

Emulation
Experimental design
Gaussian process
Hazard assessment
Multi-fidelity
Uncertainty propagation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Computer Science Applications
Computers in Earth Sciences
Computational Theory and Mathematics
Computational Mathematics

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Cite this

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abstract = "Carrying out a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) requires a large number of simulations done at a high resolution. Statistical emulation builds a surrogate to replace the simulator and thus reduces computational costs when propagating uncertainties from the earthquake sources to the tsunami inundations. To reduce further these costs, we propose here to build emulators that exploit multiple levels of resolution and a sequential design of computer experiments. By running a few tsunami simulations at high resolution and many more simulations at lower resolutions we are able to provide realistic assessments whereas, for the same budget, using only the high resolution tsunami simulations do not provide a satisfactory outcome. As a result, PTHA can be considered with higher precision using the highest spatial resolutions, and for impacts over larger regions. We provide an illustration to the city of Cilacap in Indonesia that demonstrates the benefit of our approach.",

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Multi-level emulation of tsunami simulations over Cilacap, South Java, Indonesia

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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