Projects per year
Abstract
Longer-term healthcare planning is challenging given inherent uncertainties in future population demographics and health state, and wider unknowns regarding the economy, society and technology. The aim of this paper is to describe the development and early application of a mathematical model
used to simulate the health state and associated healthcare resource consumption in a one-million resident population in and around Bristol (UK). The first stage of the modelling is to simulate population health over the next 20 years, according to five ‘Core Segments’ defined using the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score. This is done through a set of discrete-time difference equations, calibrated on patient-level data. The second stage is to apply to these projections the expected healthcare activity and cost information to derive totals per core segment. Baseline model results suggest 1.7% annual realterm cost growth, of which 0.9% is demographic and 0.8% is due to deteriorating population health.
used to simulate the health state and associated healthcare resource consumption in a one-million resident population in and around Bristol (UK). The first stage of the modelling is to simulate population health over the next 20 years, according to five ‘Core Segments’ defined using the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score. This is done through a set of discrete-time difference equations, calibrated on patient-level data. The second stage is to apply to these projections the expected healthcare activity and cost information to derive totals per core segment. Baseline model results suggest 1.7% annual realterm cost growth, of which 0.9% is demographic and 0.8% is due to deteriorating population health.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Proceedings of the Operational Research Society Simulation Workshop 2025 (SW25) |
| Editors | M Luis, A Harper, T Monks, N Mustafee |
| Publisher | The OR Society |
| Pages | 349-359 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| ISBN (Electronic) | 9781713870951 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2 Apr 2025 |
| Event | 12th Operational Research Society Simulation Workshop, SW 2025 - Exeter, UK United Kingdom Duration: 31 Mar 2025 → 2 Apr 2025 Conference number: 12 https://www.theorsociety.com/ORS/ORS/Events/2025/Simulation-Workshop/SW25-Main.aspx |
Conference
| Conference | 12th Operational Research Society Simulation Workshop, SW 2025 |
|---|---|
| Abbreviated title | SW25 |
| Country/Territory | UK United Kingdom |
| City | Exeter |
| Period | 31/03/25 → 2/04/25 |
| Internet address |
Funding
Putting patient outcome and experience in the heart of policy analytics: a dynamic cancer population model
| Funders | Funder number |
|---|---|
| Bristol, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire (BNSSG) ICB, UK National Health Service | Pure ID: 197765156 |
Keywords
- Community services
- Discharge planning
- Healthcare management
- Resource allocation
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Computational Theory and Mathematics
- Computer Science Applications
- Modelling and Simulation
Fingerprint
Dive into the research topics of 'Modelling Long-Term Changes in Population Health State and Associated Healthcare Resource Requirements'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.Projects
- 1 Finished
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Putting patient outcome and experience in the heart of policy analytics: a dynamic cancer population model
Vasilakis, C. (PI)
NHS Bristol, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire CCG
1/10/19 → 30/09/23
Project: Central government, health and local authorities