Microbial risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bloody clams in Malaysia: A preliminary model from retail to consumption

A preliminary risk assessment model of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bloody clams in Malaysia was developed. The study framework was established based on the currently available experimental and survey data, in combination with the @RISK software to simulate based on Monte Carlo simulation. The model framework was categorized into two stages, the (1) exposure assessment (retail handling and display, and consumers’ handling); and the (2) risk characterization. The exposure assessment was an amalgamation of, bacterial growth commensurate with storage temperature and time, followed by an event of heat treatment prior to consumption. The doses of bacteria consumed were later translated to an estimated risk, which was valued at 6.06E−4 per undercooked meal. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the initial pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus counts and holding time (retail and home) were the major variable parameters that contributed to the variability in risk of illness, and should be prioritized. This study provides basic guidelines to minimize the risk of vibriosis, and may serve as a preventive cue to the local consumers.