Manifestation of uncertainty - A classification

Different approaches of uncertainty described in literature focus on different aspects and points of the design process and offer insights on different aspects. The aim of this paper is to propose a classification of the manifestation of uncertainty describing the different points of the design process which offers a basis for a shared understanding and characterization of uncertainty. The classification consists of context uncertainty arising from the situation circumstances, data uncertainty stemming from input information or data, model uncertainty resulting from the simplifications in models, and phenomenological uncertainty connected to the outcome of the process. Each of these categories is described in detail which offers the basis for positioning the research contributions published in previous ICED conferences. The classification allows an identification of the part of the design process which is most influenced by uncertainty and activities for improvement and uncertainty reduction can be focused at this aspect. Furthermore, techniques for modeling and managing this uncertainty can be identified.