Lukashenka’s Tightrope: Trying to Distance from the Kremlin?

This article analyses the development of the Lukashenka regime in Belarus since the 2020 presidential election and the state-wide protests that followed. Having burned bridges with Western states in its response to the protests, the Lukashenka regime has relied on support from Russia to maintain its power. This overreliance on Russian support has been a problem since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. On the one hand, Lukashenka has called for talks and unity among the Belarusian, Russian and Ukrainian ‘brothers.’ On the other hand, since 2020 Lukashenka, who is aware that most Belarusians are averse to the war, has tried to maintain as much neutrality as possible in the narrow space that is afforded him. Lukashenka has adapted by shoring up his position in developing a party-of-power that would supersede the Parliament with the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, and through indirect involvement in Russia’s war. With the 2025 presidential elections set for January 2025, Lukashenka has put out tentative feelers to Western states, likely in an attempt to widen the narrow space left to him by relying on Russia.