LdT: An indicator of ionospheric activity based on statistical distributions in GNSS-derived TEC rates of change: An indicator of ionospheric activity based on statistical distributions in GNSS-derived TEC rates of change

Many aspects of our societies now depend upon satellite telecommunications, such as those requiring Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). GNSS is based on radio waves that propagate through the ionosphere and experience complicated propagation effects caused by inhomogeneities in its electron density. The Earth’s ionosphere forms part of the solar-terrestrial environment, and its state is determined by the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of its electron density. It varies in response to the “space weather” combination of solar activity and geomagnetic conditions. Notably, the radio waves used in satellite telecommunications suffer due to the dispersive nature of the ionospheric plasma.Scales and indices that summarise the state of the solar-terrestrial environment due to solar activity and geomagnetic conditions already exist. However, the response of the ionosphere to active geomagnetic conditions, its geoeffectiveness, and its likely impact on systems and services are not encapsulated by these. This is due to the ionosphere’s intrinsic day-to-day variability, persistent seasonal patterns, and because radio wave measurements of the ionosphere depend upon many factors. Here we develop a novel index ((Formula presented)) that describes the state of the ionosphere – as is relevant to GNSS – during specific space weather conditions. It is based on propagation disturbances in GNSS signals, and is able to characterise the spatio-temporal evolution of ionospheric disturbances. This new scale encapsulates day-to-day variability, seasonal patterns, and the geo-effective response of the ionosphere to disturbed space weather conditions; and can be applied to data from any GNSS network. It is intended that this new scale will be utilised by agencies providing space weather services, as well as by service operators to appreciate the current conditions in the ionosphere that affect GNSS, thus informing their operations.