Judgmental Interventions and Behavioral Change

Fotios Petropoulos, Konstantinos Nikopoulos

Research output: Chapter or section in a book/report/conference proceedingChapter or section


Previous empirical studies have shown that a simple combination of the formal (statistical) forecast and its judgmentally revised counterpart (expert forecast) can lead to a more accurate final forecast. However, it is argued that a further adjustment of the expert adjusted forecast would ultimately lead to a long-term change of forecasters’ behavior. Expecting that forecasters will not act hyper-rational to reach an equilibrium, the degree of their behavior change is not easy to be estimated. In this study, we try to assess the degree of this behavior change through a laboratory experiment. The adjustments of experts, with and without a 50–50% combination of system-expert forecast being occurred, are recorded and analyzed. We observe that the experts’ adjustments increase in size once they are informed that a subsequent adjustment takes place; one that essentially halves the expert adjustment. In other words, participants in our experiment try to mitigate for that further adjustment and retain the ownership of the final forecasts.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication Judgment in Predictive Analytics
EditorsM. Seifert
Place of PublicationCham, Switzerland
PublisherSpringer Healthcare
Number of pages17
ISBN (Electronic)9783031300851
ISBN (Print)9783031300844
Publication statusPublished - 3 Jun 2023

Publication series

NameInternational Series in Operations Research and Management Science
ISSN (Print)0884-8289
ISSN (Electronic)2214-7934


  • Adjustment
  • Combination
  • Forecasting
  • Judgment
  • Rational behavior
  • Statistical forecast

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Software
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Strategy and Management
  • Management Science and Operations Research
  • Applied Mathematics


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