ShoTS Forecasting: Short Time Series Forecasting for Management Research

Dimitrios Thomakos, Geoffrey Wood, Marilou Ioakimidis, Giorgos Papagiannakis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Citations (SciVal)

Abstract

We present a novel method for forecasting with limited information, that is for forecasting short time series. Our method is simple and intuitive; it relates to the most fundamental forecasting benchmark and is straightforward to implement. We present the technical details of the method and explain the nuances of how it works via two illustrative examples, with the use of employment-related data. We find that our new method outperforms standard forecasting methods and thus offers considerable utility in applied management research. The implications of our findings suggest that forecasting short time series, of which one can find many examples in business and management, is viable and can be of considerable practical help for both research and practice – even when the information available to analysts and decision-makers is limited.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)539-554
Number of pages16
JournalBritish Journal of Management
Volume34
Issue number2
Early online date2 Jun 2022
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 30 Apr 2023

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Business,Management and Accounting
  • Strategy and Management
  • Management of Technology and Innovation

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