Intervention time series analysis of crime rates: The case of sentence reform in Virginia

Suncica Vujić; Jacques J. F. Commandeur; Siem Jan Koopman

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.017

Intervention time series analysis of crime rates: The case of sentence reform in Virginia

Suncica Vujić, Jacques J. F. Commandeur, Siem Jan Koopman

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Abstract

We review the basic concepts of intervention analysis in the context of structural time series models and we apply this methodology to investigate the possible reduction in monthly crime rates reported from January 1984 up to and including December 2010 after Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing in January 1995. We find that the change in legislation has significantly reduced the burglary rates and to a lesser extent the murder rates in Virginia. The robustness of our results is investigated with an automatic detection of breaks procedure as well as with analyses of quarterly rather than monthly data.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	311-323
Journal	Economic Modelling
Volume	57
Early online date	17 Mar 2016
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.017
Publication status	Published - Sept 2016

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

Keywords

Breaks
Crime rates
Outliers
Structural time series models

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10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.017

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.017

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title = "Intervention time series analysis of crime rates: The case of sentence reform in Virginia",

abstract = "We review the basic concepts of intervention analysis in the context of structural time series models and we apply this methodology to investigate the possible reduction in monthly crime rates reported from January 1984 up to and including December 2010 after Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing in January 1995. We find that the change in legislation has significantly reduced the burglary rates and to a lesser extent the murder rates in Virginia. The robustness of our results is investigated with an automatic detection of breaks procedure as well as with analyses of quarterly rather than monthly data.",

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T1 - Intervention time series analysis of crime rates

T2 - The case of sentence reform in Virginia

AU - Vujić, Suncica

AU - Commandeur, Jacques J. F.

AU - Koopman, Siem Jan

PY - 2016/9

Y1 - 2016/9

N2 - We review the basic concepts of intervention analysis in the context of structural time series models and we apply this methodology to investigate the possible reduction in monthly crime rates reported from January 1984 up to and including December 2010 after Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing in January 1995. We find that the change in legislation has significantly reduced the burglary rates and to a lesser extent the murder rates in Virginia. The robustness of our results is investigated with an automatic detection of breaks procedure as well as with analyses of quarterly rather than monthly data.

AB - We review the basic concepts of intervention analysis in the context of structural time series models and we apply this methodology to investigate the possible reduction in monthly crime rates reported from January 1984 up to and including December 2010 after Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing in January 1995. We find that the change in legislation has significantly reduced the burglary rates and to a lesser extent the murder rates in Virginia. The robustness of our results is investigated with an automatic detection of breaks procedure as well as with analyses of quarterly rather than monthly data.

KW - Breaks

KW - Crime rates

KW - Outliers

KW - Structural time series models

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84961233933

UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.017

U2 - 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.017

DO - 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.02.017

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84961233933

SN - 0264-9993

VL - 57

SP - 311

EP - 323

JO - Economic Modelling

JF - Economic Modelling

ER -

Intervention time series analysis of crime rates: The case of sentence reform in Virginia

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

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