Intervention time series analysis of crime rates

The case of sentence reform in Virginia

Suncica Vujić, Jacques J. F. Commandeur, Siem Jan Koopman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We review the basic concepts of intervention analysis in the context of structural time series models and we apply this methodology to investigate the possible reduction in monthly crime rates reported from January 1984 up to and including December 2010 after Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing in January 1995. We find that the change in legislation has significantly reduced the burglary rates and to a lesser extent the murder rates in Virginia. The robustness of our results is investigated with an automatic detection of breaks procedure as well as with analyses of quarterly rather than monthly data.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)311-323
JournalEconomic Modelling
Volume57
Early online date17 Mar 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2016

Fingerprint

Time series analysis
Crime rates
Legislation
Structural time series models
Intervention analysis
Methodology
Robustness

Keywords

  • Breaks
  • Crime rates
  • Outliers
  • Structural time series models

Cite this

Intervention time series analysis of crime rates : The case of sentence reform in Virginia. / Vujić, Suncica; Commandeur, Jacques J. F.; Koopman, Siem Jan.

In: Economic Modelling, Vol. 57, 09.2016, p. 311-323.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Vujić, Suncica ; Commandeur, Jacques J. F. ; Koopman, Siem Jan. / Intervention time series analysis of crime rates : The case of sentence reform in Virginia. In: Economic Modelling. 2016 ; Vol. 57. pp. 311-323.
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