Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates

Sunčica Vujić, Siem Jan Koopman

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Abstract

The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony offenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislation on reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structural time series models are considered as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins ARIMA models that form the standard time series approach to intervention analysis. Limited support for the deterrent impact of parole abolition and sentence reform is obtained using univariate modelling devices, even after including unemployment as an explanatory variable. Finally, the flexibility of structural time series models is illustrated by presenting a multivariate analysis that provides some additional evidence of the deterrent impact of the new legislation.
Original languageEnglish
Pages217-229
Number of pages13
Publication statusPublished - 2007
EventConference on Contemporary Challenges of Theory and Practice in Economics - Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade
Duration: 27 Sep 200728 Sep 2007

Conference

ConferenceConference on Contemporary Challenges of Theory and Practice in Economics
CityFaculty of Economics, University of Belgrade
Period27/09/0728/09/07

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    Vujić, S., & Koopman, S. J. (2007). Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates. 217-229. Paper presented at Conference on Contemporary Challenges of Theory and Practice in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, .